AAP may drop 20 MLAs to beat anti-incumbency: Party leaders
The AAP plans to drop over a third of its MLAs for the 2025 polls to address anti-incumbency and public dissatisfaction, based on recent surveys.
In a bid to neutralise anti-incumbency sentiment and “public angst” against some legislators, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which has been securing landslide victories in Delhi since the 2015 assembly elections, is likely to drop more than a third of its sitting MLAs from the running for the 2025 polls, according to at least three senior leaders aware of the developments.
The decision to drop more than 20 legislators is based on ground surveys and evaluation of legislators on a range of criteria such as development work carried out in respective segments, popularity and accessibility, and anti-incumbency sentiment, the leaders involved in the election strategy of the party told HT.
The party has already dropped three sitting legislators from its first list of candidates released last month.
“The tickets are being finalised based on surveys and the feedback of the local people...While many MLAs continue to be quite popular, there is anger against many MLAs but locals are saying they are satisfied with Arvind Kejriwal... As per our estimate, around 20 MLAs may be dropped. The final decision, however, will be taken by the party leadership,” said one of the three leaders, asking not to be named.
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The AAP won 62 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly in the February 2020 assembly elections, and the BJP won the remaining eight.
However, four AAP leaders, the latest being former transport minister Kailash Gahlot, either resigned or were disqualified, bringing the party’s strength in the House down to 58.
The ruling party is now gearing up for the elections and hopes to rise above the allegations of corruption that have haunted heavyweights with CBI and ED probes and jail time, leading to a series of changes in the AAP in the last few years.
Adding to this, one of the leaders cited above admitted that there is also brewing anger among people against “several MLAs for not doing their work”.
“The surveys also say that 65% of people want (Arvind) Kejriwal back,” said the leader, requesting not to be identified.
HT reached out to the AAP for an official response but it did not issue one.
In the 2020 assembly elections too, the AAP had dropped 16 sitting MLAs — many of whom rebelled against the party — but still managed to win 62 out of the 70 seats.
On November 21 this year, the AAP released its first list of 11 candidates dropping three sitting MLAs — Gulab Singh (Matiala), Abdul Rehman (Seelampur) and Rituraj Jha (Kirari), and fielded leaders who switched from the Congress and the BJP. Two other MLAs — Ram Niwas Goel (Shahdara) and Dilip Kumar Pandey (Timarpur) – have opted out of the elections “on their own.”
The move seems to have been inspired by the election formula the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has often adopted in several of the previous elections — this year’s Lok Sabha elections, the recent Haryana elections, and the 2022 Gujarat elections. In the general elections in June, the BJP dropped more than 130 of its 303 sitting MPs.
The BJP later secured 240 seats on its own.
It also seeks to compensate for the city governance that took a heavy toll with the jailing of former CM Arvind Kejriwal, former deputy CM Manish Sisodia, and former minister Satyendar Jain over graft allegations.
The AAP has been unable to fulfil many promises it made such as refurbishing roads, making Yamuna clean, and supplying 24x7 uninterrupted water across the city. Other issues that piled up were the worsening condition of roads and overflowing sewer lines, especially during the monsoon.
AAP Chief monitoring surveys
For the last few months, the AAP has been conducting surveys across constituencies to gather public feedback on the performance of MLAs in their respective segments. These surveys have been commissioned and are being monitored directly by AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal said one of the leaders cited above.
“The party chief directly takes feedback from those conducting the surveys and takes the decisions based on merit so that the election strategy is sharp and can bring the desired results,” the second party leader said, who asked not to be named.
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The upcoming election is more crucial for the AAP for multiple reasons: it will be Kejriwal’s attempt at redemption after spending six months in jail this year in connection with the excise policy cases which led to him quitting the CM’s post, a tough Opposition riding high on its series of victories in crucial states and the Lok Sabha elections, and gaining back public trust by resuming unfinished government works.
Tanvir Aeijaz, associate professor of political science at Ramjas College, said: “There are majorly two reasons for not giving tickets to some of the sitting legislators. One, isto stave off the possible anti-incumbencies of those legislators whose reports are unfavourable. Two, by bringing new faces, Kejriwal, the patriarch of the party, would like to convey his leadership and further retain his sway in the party.”


