Brand Thackeray no longer immune to whims of voters

Shinde’s Sena won 57 seats, as opposed to Sena(UBT)’s 20 — this should worry Thackeray about the Sena mantle moving to his rival

Mumbai:

Mumbai, India - Nov. 23, 2024: Shiv sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray intranet with media at Matoshree, Bandra in Mumbai, India, on Saturday, November 23, 2024. (Photo by Satish Bate/ Hindustan Times) (Hindustan Times)

Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray famously refrained from electoral politics, choosing as he said, when the Shiv Sena-BJP combine first came to power in Maharashtra in 1995, to work as the “remote control.” But nearly 30 years on, both Indian politics and the Shiv Sena are a different beast. In 2019, Balasaheb’s heir Uddhav was convinced by Sharad Pawar to head the Maha Vikas Aghadi government as its chief minister. Thackeray did not face the electorate and was elected Member of the Legislative Council instead.

In light of Saturday’s results, a question that’s no longer preposterous and worth asking is: Would he have won had he contested? The two Thackerays who did contest had mixed results. Raj Thackeray who heads the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (and who is opposed to Uddhav) fielded his son Amit from Mahim—a constituency dominated by upper caste, middle class Maharashtrians. Raj Thackeray himself is a resident there. In a triangular fight among Shiv Sena, Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS, Amit Thackeray came third.

Uddhav’s political heir Aaditya Thackeray who was the sitting MLA from Worli won his second consecutive term. But just about. In 2019, Aaditya Thackeray’s victory margin was 67,427 votes. In 2024, his victory margin came down to 8,801.

The Thackeray brand is no longer immune to the vagaries of the electorate.

“This is a big setback for brand Thackeray,” said Santosh Desai, brand consultant.

“There are now two claimants for Bal Thackeray’s legacy: Uddhav and Eknath Shinde. As far as Uddhav is concerned, I feel there has always been a hesitation towards his leadership. And Raj Thackeray, for his part, has achieved whatever he could, he can do no more. But beyond this BJP has taken over the space of the entire space of the Right, militant and otherwise. There is nothing unique that anyone else can promise. Uddhav, can, at best now, play the role of a spoil sport,” added Desai.

In a head-to-head fight with his bete noire and rebel leader Eknath Shinde, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) performed abysmally. It contested 95 seats and could win only 20. Shinde’s Shiv Sena, on the other hand contested 81 seats and won 57—his tally higher than all of MVA put together.

The undivided Shiv Sena had won 63 seats in 2014 and 56 seats in 2019. The fact that Eknath Shinde won 57 as opposed to his 20, should worry Thackeray about the Sena mantle moving to his rival.

For, his party has performed below par in its traditional stronghold of Mumbai Metropolitan Region and the Konkan belt, losing all the seats it contested in the MMR (Thane, Dombivli, Navi Mumbai, Vasai-Virar) outside of Mumbai.

“Thackeray will have to go back to drawing board and pay attention to rebuilding the party organisation which was always the Sena’s strength. But this will not be an easy task as his rival Eknath Shinde knows the party inside out and also knows exactly where its weaknesses are. However, one should not write off Brand Thackeray so soon,” said Mumbai-based political analyst Padmabhushan Deshpande.

By Saturday evening as the scale of devastation became clear, cousins Thackeray were left at a loss of words. “Unbelievable!” said Raj Thackeray whose party did not win even one of the 125 seats it contested.

“The result is unexpected and puzzling...I never thought Maharashtra will behave like this,” said Uddhav Thackeray addressing the media at Matoshree.

Even his comments were telling — fading brands do not understand how and why the market is changing.