What Ajit Pawar’s sudden death means for Maharashtra politics

At least in the immediate term, Pawar’s death is unlikely to affect the stability of the BJP-led Mahayuti government, which has 230 MLAs in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly

Mumbai: The sudden death of Ajit Pawar is expected to have a significant impact on Maharashtra politics, which has been witnessing upheavals since 2019, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the undivided Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray parted ways.

Mumbai, India. Nov 19, 2025 - Devendra Fadnavis, Chief Minister of Maharashtra state, and Ajit Pawar, Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra state, inaugurated the exhibition on the New Criminal Laws at Azad Maidan in South Mumbai. Senior government officials and top state police officers attended the event. The exhibition is open to the public for the next three days. Mumbai, India. Nov 19, 2025. (Photo by Raju Shinde/HT Photo) (Raju Shinde)

Pawar was the deputy chief minister and head of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which has 41 MLAs in the state assembly and is a key constituent of the ruling Mahayuti alliance. The party has a strong presence in western and northern Maharashtra. Pawar was also a powerful figure in the cooperative sector and a prominent leader from the Maratha community, which has been dominant in the state’s politics.

At least in the immediate term, Pawar’s death is unlikely to affect the stability of the BJP-led Mahayuti government, which has 230 MLAs in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly. NCP MLAs who had supported Pawar when he rebelled against his uncle and party founder Sharad Pawar and joined the BJP-led coalition in 2023 would like to continue the alliance. The political compulsions that forced them to take the decision still exist. The BJP, too, would encourage a leadership in the party that would maintain the status quo.

“There are only two senior leaders in the party—Sunil Tatkare and Chhagan Bhujbal,” said a senior NCP leader. “Sunetra or Parth would prefer to take up Ajit’s place in the government. In both cases, there are doubts about whether they would be able to enjoy the support of the party’s MLAs for long. And then, Sharad Pawar and [his MP daughter] Supriya Sule would be in the picture. In the end, it would depend on whom the majority of MLAs support to lead.”

Before Ajit Pawar’s death, there were concerns within the BJP that he and Sharad Pawar were moving towards reconciliation. The two NCP factions had even contested a few recent local body elections together. Pawar’s death has now cast doubt over any possible merger or reconciliation.

“While Ajit dada had a soft corner for his uncle and, lately, was again inching back towards the latter, other leaders, including his son Parth, are unlikely to have such a leaning. This could adversely affect the plans for merger, if there were any,” said a senior NCP (SP) legislator.

“Further, the merger will happen only if the majority of MLAs want it, but the fact is that none of them would want to leave the ruling alliance. If senior Pawar and Supriya Sule want to go with the BJP, things would be easier,” the legislator added.

BJP leaders who supported Ajit Pawar when he split the NCP would try to ensure that the party’s control remains with someone willing to continue the alliance with the BJP.

The Mahayuti angle

Ajit Pawar’s death comes as a setback for chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who had an excellent rapport with the NCP chief.

“Compared to Eknath Shinde, Ajit dada was a much less troublesome ally,” said a senior BJP minister. “He was cooperative and well aware of his limitations. When it came to running the government, he was a strict administrator. Fadnavis will miss it. Now, Shinde could become a little stronger in the government.”

Pawar was a key factor in the BJP’s plans to control western Maharashtra, a stronghold of Sharad Pawar. His joining the Mahayuti was one of the reasons why the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) fared badly in the 2024 assembly elections. Besides, he had a strong presence in the cooperative sector and was one of the few leaders who had a following among the Maratha community. The Mahayuti gained from him and his party.

“While we have several people from the cooperative sector with us now, Shinde remains a popular Maratha leader. With Ajit no more in the picture, he could use the situation to his advantage,” said the abovementioned BJP minister.

Will NCP remain intact?

The major question being asked is whether the NCP will remain a strong political force now.

Most of the party’s legislators chose to side with Ajit Pawar because of his leadership. With Sharad Pawar reaching the twilight of his career, Ajit emerged as their choice, as he understood the state’s politics, was very good at handling the party organisation, knew how to run the government, and how to protect their interests.

“None of the current probables who can assume the leadership of the party come even close to him in terms of leadership capabilities,” said the senior NCP leader quoted earlier. “In this background, several MLAs may choose to shift to parties that would suit their interests. It could mean going back to the Sharad Pawar-led party or the BJP, or parties in the Opposition. This is unlikely to happen immediately, as there are no major elections scheduled until the next Lok Sabha elections. However, things could change after a couple of years, and the party could lose its strength or position.”

Padmabhushan Deshpande, a Mumbai-based political analyst, said Ajit Pawar’s death has disturbed the balance of Maharashtra politics, which will have repercussions. “Sharad Pawar created a space for the NCP that was between the BJP and the Congress. That was why, even after Ajit joined the NDA, the secular leaning of the party and its base in western Maharashtra remained intact. If the party disintegrates, there could be a void,” he added.

This space would be up for grabs, but it is not clear who would be able to occupy it. Analysts believe the BJP will have some advantage, but aggressive parties such as the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) could also gain if the NCP is on the decline.

“Ajit led a party that has a strong rank and file in the areas it dominates,” said Pratap Asbe, a political analyst. “After him, if the party is not headed by somebody of his calibre, there are chances that the party cadre and local leaders would prefer other options.”

He added, “It is not clear how long Sharad Pawar would be politically active. As such, the Congress could have been in a position to gain, but the party doesn’t seem capable of doing so. Someone like Uddhav Thackeray can occupy the space.”