PUNE With the current La Nina conditions prevailing, the southwest monsoon this year is likely to be normal as per weather scientists. According to the weather department, as of now, the weak La Nina conditions may become neutral till May.
About the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, O P Sreejith, head, climate monitoring and prediction group, India Meteorological Department (IMD), said that many weather models have predicted that La Nina conditions may weaken. “However, there are some models indicating that La Nina may prevail. However, it is too early to predict as there are other factors which will become clear by the end of April and May,” said Sreejith.
D S Pai, former scientist at IMD and now director at the Institute of Climate Change Studies, government of Kerala, said that the weak La Nina conditions will continue. “After May, La Nina conditions may dissipate and the monsoon may become neutral. In case of neutral ENSO conditions, there may be no effect of La Nina and El Nino conditions. However, there are Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and other factors which will be clear by April and May,” said Pai.
On Monday, Skymet, a private weather forecaster, issued the “Skymet Weather Forecasts Monsoon Probabilities for India in 2022”. GP Sharma, president, meteorology and climate change, Skymet Weather, said that after observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 and 2021, the chances of yet another episode are ruled out, statistically. “The Sea Surface Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Nina will fall. However, ENSO predictability decreases during the upcoming ‘spring barrier’ and at times leads to an unstable ENSO regime,” said Sharma. He added that this will get factored in the April forecast. “While the monsoon trough is over the South Tropical Indian Ocean, IOD events are typically unable to form till April. Reliable trends of IOD emerge in the latter half of it. Early indications suggest it to be ‘neutral’ but leaning close to the negative threshold. The IOD-ENSO interaction will hold the key to the overall health of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2022,” Sharma said.
{{/usCountry}}On Monday, Skymet, a private weather forecaster, issued the “Skymet Weather Forecasts Monsoon Probabilities for India in 2022”. GP Sharma, president, meteorology and climate change, Skymet Weather, said that after observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 and 2021, the chances of yet another episode are ruled out, statistically. “The Sea Surface Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Nina will fall. However, ENSO predictability decreases during the upcoming ‘spring barrier’ and at times leads to an unstable ENSO regime,” said Sharma. He added that this will get factored in the April forecast. “While the monsoon trough is over the South Tropical Indian Ocean, IOD events are typically unable to form till April. Reliable trends of IOD emerge in the latter half of it. Early indications suggest it to be ‘neutral’ but leaning close to the negative threshold. The IOD-ENSO interaction will hold the key to the overall health of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2022,” Sharma said.
{{/usCountry}}Dr Jasti Chowdary, senior Scientist at Indian institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) said that at present La Nina conditions are prevailing. “These La Nina conditions will decay during the first half of summer monsoon time till July end. After that there are 50 percent chances that ENSO conditions will be normal. World wide, El Nino in winter is weak. Neutral conditions are likely so Monsoon may not be deficient. However, it seems that Indian Ocean may play have a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) pattern later half of the monsoon. Later part of the monsoon it may affect a little. IOD is going to show up in the later half,” said Chowdary.