What are the chances of Virat Kohli breaking Sachin Tendulkar's record of most ODI runs? How close can he get?

Virat Kohli has at most 23 matches left before potentially retiring after the 2027 WC.

Updated on: Oct 26, 2025, 08:54:13 IST

By Probuddha Bhattacharjee

Prefer HTon Google

Share via

Copy link

Virat Kohli walked in to bat in Sydney with the burden of two consecutive ducks and with uncertainty about his cricketing future. However, when he walked out, he had ensured a fine victory for India, scoring a fluent 74 off 81 deliveries and placing himself second on the list of highest run-scorers in ODIs.

Virat Kohli celebrates his half-century during the third One-Day International. (PTI)

Notably, Kohli now has 14,255 runs under his belt, just behind Sachin Tendulkar’s 18,426. The record seems a long distance away; however, the question will rise in the minds of common Kohli fans - Can Kohli reach the summit of ODI runs?

Let us examine the probabilities in detail -

Where the numbers stand now

Kohli: Now second in ODIs in terms of runs scored after passing Sangakkara during the SCG ODI.
Tendulkar: 18,426 runs - the highest ever.
Kohli needs 4,172 runs to surpass Tendulkar and be at the top of this list.

Our prediction model

Fixtures left: Considering India plays in the final of WC 2027 and that turns out to be the last match of Kohli’s career, we can say that he has 23 more matches left.

12 ODIs from the currently announced schedule through 2026.
11 matches at the 2027 World Cup, if India reaches the final.

Form: We have considered three runs per innings production bands for Kohli over those 23 matches.

Conservative: 40 runs per innings - 920 runs
Career standard: 55-58 runs per innings - 1,265 to 1,335 runs
Peak form: more than 60 runs per innings with 1 or 2 big centuries - 1,350 to 1,500 runs

Simulation: Thousands of season-tails using the above assumptions are done. The share of outcomes where he goes past Sachin clusters around 1%.

How close can Kohli get?

Even on the bullish lane, Kohli adds around 1.5k runs to his tally. That takes his tally to around 16,000 ODI runs. This also stays an elite career, and if he gets past the 15k and 16k marks, he will only be the second batter to do so in the history of the game. But if indeed the 2027 WC is his last, then it is improbable for him to get past Tendulkar.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Probuddha Bhattacharjee
Probuddha Bhattacharjee is a sports writer and analyst with expertise spanning cricket, football, and multi-sport events, with a strong emphasis on data-driven journalism and tactical storytelling. He currently focuses on international cricket, the Indian Premier League, global tournaments, and emerging trends shaping modern sport, blending advanced statistics with strong narrative context to explain performance, strategy, and decision-making. His work aims to bridge the gap between numbers and storytelling, helping readers understand not just what happened on the field, but the tactical and structural reasons behind it. Trained in data journalism through the Google News Initiative (GNI) Data Journalism Lab, Probuddha works extensively with ball-by-ball datasets, performance metrics, and trend-based modelling to produce evidence-backed reports, explainers, and long-form features. His analytical approach focuses not only on outcomes but also on process—selection strategies, phase-wise tactics, workload management, and the influence of preparation and planning on match results. He is particularly interested in how statistical patterns reshape conventional cricketing narratives and provide clearer tactical insight for modern audiences. Beyond cricket, Probuddha has written analytical and news-driven pieces on football and other major sporting events, with a growing interest in sports governance, scheduling dynamics, and the economics of elite competitions. He also tracks how rule changes, franchise structures, and broadcast pressures influence the evolution of contemporary sport. He has previously contributed to platforms such as OneCricket, Sportskeeda, and CrickTracker, and continues to specialise in analytical storytelling, live coverage, and audience-focused reporting. His work prioritises clarity, context, and credibility, while consistently exploring innovative ways to present data through accessible narratives and structured match analysis.Read More

Get live cricket scores, match updates, schedules, results and ICC rankings. Follow the latest news, statistics and performances of top teams and players on Hindustan Times.