COP31 shouldn’t be a lost cause

A potential US return to the table could help political, diplomatic engagement on climate

As COP31 begins in Turkey’s Antalya, the latest data highlight that the breach of the 1.5°C threshold under the Paris accord is a certainty in the coming years. An UNEP assessment confirms that the continuance of current policies will push the planet towards 2.8°C of warming by the end of the century. With a powerful El Niño already wreaking havoc globally and expected to intensify further this month, the stakes at this year’s climate negotiations couldn’t be higher. The provisional agenda reflects a wide gamut of challenges, including just transition, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), climate finance, the Global Stocktake, technology transfer and Article 6 carbon market mechanisms. New announcements are expected, but the real test will be whether countries can agree on implementation roadmaps.

Climate summits have struggled with consensus, accountability, and, therefore, results. Despite ambitious declarations and new targets, the gap between commitments and actions remains wide. (AFP)

Climate summits have struggled with consensus, accountability, and, therefore, results. Despite ambitious declarations and new targets, the gap between commitments and actions remains wide. Discussions and disagreements linger on. Issues such as who should pay how much for climate action, the pace of emissions reduction, and the tussle between developed and developing countries continue to undermine consensus. At a time when geopolitical tensions are already testing multilateral cooperation, keeping countries at the negotiating table is as important as securing ambitious outcomes. Armed with this historical context, India’s environment minister Bhupender Yadav has been fairly vocal that COP31’s success should be measured by delivery, support, and scale rather than new targets. India’s agenda thus pushes for predictable, largely public and concessional climate finance, technology transfer, greater adaptation support, and a just transition that respects national circumstances. However, consensus on any of the above will remain elusive, especially at a time when the global economy remains disrupted.

Despite such challenges, COP31 isn’t a lost cause. The Loss and Damage Fund’s decision last month to set aside $21.6 million for Nepal’s devastating flash floods was an important step towards supporting countries facing irreversible climate impacts. Though not on the agenda, the fund is likely to be taken up again as other vulnerable nations seek similar assistance. However, responding to such calamities will require a swifter response, through accessible financing. There is also a potential opening for renewed US engagement. While the Trump administration has long withdrawn from the Paris accord and the US is not participating officially in the talks, a delegation of Democratic lawmakers is expected in Antalya following the party’s gains in the midterm elections. This could help sustain political and diplomatic engagement on climate cooperation.