India has downgraded its diplomatic relationship with Pakistan. It has told the Pakistani high commission in Delhi to reduce its strength by half, on the grounds that officials were supporting “cross-border violence and terrorism”. Given the reciprocity that governs diplomatic ties, India will do the same in Pakistan. This comes soon after India expelled two Pakistani high commission officials for spying, and Pakistani agencies detained and harassed two members of the Indian diplomatic mission in Islamabad. Since August, when India decided to change the constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the two countries have also not had high commissioners in each other’s country. New Delhi’s recent decision is the first time after the 2001 Parliament attack that it has downgraded ties to this level.
But the tit-for-tat diplomatic battle hides beneath it a real dilemma in India’s Pakistan policy. On one hand it is a clear, well-recognised, fact. Pakistan is a State that sponsors terrorism and engages in asymmetric warfare against India. It has, directly through its military-intelligence nexus, given patronage to terror groups that have conducted attacks, leading to huge loss of Indian lives. Pakistan continues to cause violence and instability in J&K — an integral part of India. It engages in mass disinformation campaigns against India internationally. And it is an “all-weather friend” of China, which has stepped up its offensive against India — perhaps even in close consultation with Islamabad. In this backdrop, even continuing with diplomatic niceties and talking to Pakistan appears futile.
At the same time, Pakistan is a neighbour. Its alliance with China poses a threat, for it can lead to an adversarial “two-front” situation — which Indian policymakers have factored in, but must be avoided for the costs involved. Countering Pakistan’s disinformation campaigns is also a distraction from India’s core diplomatic goals. And not talking at all — and downgrading diplomatic ties — will not make the situation better. This then is the dilemma. The United Progressive Alliance government talked, hoping it would embolden constituencies of peace and lead to a breakthrough. It did not work. For the most part, the Narendra Modi government has not talked. It hasn’t worked either. There are no easy solutions. But at the minimum, diplomatic channels of some sort must remain intact to handle unforeseen situations, as well as the other elements of the relationship, including people-to-people ties. India must think more creatively about its legitimate Pakistan dilemma.
{{/usCountry}}At the same time, Pakistan is a neighbour. Its alliance with China poses a threat, for it can lead to an adversarial “two-front” situation — which Indian policymakers have factored in, but must be avoided for the costs involved. Countering Pakistan’s disinformation campaigns is also a distraction from India’s core diplomatic goals. And not talking at all — and downgrading diplomatic ties — will not make the situation better. This then is the dilemma. The United Progressive Alliance government talked, hoping it would embolden constituencies of peace and lead to a breakthrough. It did not work. For the most part, the Narendra Modi government has not talked. It hasn’t worked either. There are no easy solutions. But at the minimum, diplomatic channels of some sort must remain intact to handle unforeseen situations, as well as the other elements of the relationship, including people-to-people ties. India must think more creatively about its legitimate Pakistan dilemma.
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