Moscow Format: The new great game in Af-Pak

The ten nation consultative framework, backed by Moscow, shines light on the emerging power relations in the region

The 10 nations involved in the Russia-backed Moscow Format consultations have opposed any deployment of foreign military infrastructure in Afghanistan at a time when US president Donald Trump has spoken about taking over Bagram airbase. This is one of the rare occasions when even India and Pakistan have shown unanimity on a regional issue, and the joint statement issued by the Moscow Format group is significant in many ways, revealing a lot about the feverish diplomatic activity in the Af-Pak region. The development is also significant because the Taliban foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi participated in the Moscow Format consultations as an official delegate for the first time, and the regime in Kabul has urged those with “covetous ambitions” to study the history of the US occupation.

The Moscow Format’s joint statement speaks against any US military infrastructure, not just in Afghanistan, but even in neighbouring countries. (AP)

Besides India and Pakistan, the signatories to the joint statement include Russia, China, and Iran. This is, perhaps, the largest endorsement of a Taliban stance in the region in recent times. From New Delhi’s perspective, the development came days before a visit by Muttaqi, the first Taliban government functionary to travel to India since the group returned to power in Kabul in August 2021. The joint statement also represents a convergence of positions in the region against American attempts to re-enter Afghanistan militarily. The Taliban have already made it clear that they are willing to do business with the US, but are unwilling to allow any military presence.

However, Pakistan’s endorsement reveals a contradiction in its diplomatic positions as it tries to play ball with China and the US, with army chief Asim Munir having found a new benefactor in Trump. The Moscow Format’s joint statement speaks against any US military infrastructure, not just in Afghanistan, but even in neighbouring countries. The same Pakistan reportedly has offered to allow the US to develop the Pasni port to gain access to the mineral wealth of Balochistan. Pasni is located a short distance from Gwadar port, a major investment project for China, and the border with Iran. Pakistan clearly believes it can play all these countries for its diplomatic salience.

The Trump administration, which is seeking client regimes in the region, and the hybrid government in Pakistan are both transactional in their approach rather than working to build enduring ties based on shared values and geopolitical interests. In the long run, these contradictions are sure to spill over, with significant ramifications for what is already unsettled region.