North-South politics in population debate

The southern states, having done better at population control, are expected to see fewer new constituencies than the northern states.

The chief ministers of two southern states — N Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu’s MK Stalin — have exhorted the people of their states to have more children. While the first worries about the greying South, the second’s concerns seem more political than demographic. Fertility rates in the southern states are significantly lower than most in the North, but it’s worth noting that India’s overall fertility rate has been falling and is now estimated to be below the replacement rate of 2.1.

Chennai: Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu addresses the media with DMK President MK Stalin at latter's residence in Chennai, Friday,Nov09.2018. (PTI Photo) (PTI)

Top on the minds of leaders such as Stalin is the very real fear of representation in Parliament shrinking when delimitation is carried out. Delimitation is the resizing of constituencies and the creation of new ones to account for the rise in the national population in a manner that the strength of each constituency remains roughly equal. The southern states, having done better at population control, are expected to see fewer new constituencies than the northern states. So, the worry over diminishing political clout is understandable — especially since these states will effectively be penalised for doing well. But incentivising more births — Naidu even mentioned the prospect of legal measures to prohibit those with two or fewer children from contesting local body elections — is no solution.

First, incentives to boost fertility have failed in most geographies, including South Korea, Denmark, and lately, China. Second, there is individual biology involved (infertility, consequences for maternal health), and legal measures such as a threshold number of children for poll aspirants do not recognise the complexities involved in family size decisions. Third, these policies contain an element of coercion, which erodes women’s agency in childbearing decisions and seems to suggest that conception and birth are subject to the State’s will.

But the comments are a reminder that delimitation could exacerbate existing fault lines between the northern and southern states. A rational debate on the real issue may be needed.