Conditions have turned favourable for the La Nina phenomenon in the next few months, according to the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US. This holds both promise and warning for India. La Nina, historically, is associated with heavy rainfall during the southwest monsoon, which arrives in early June. The rains — the India Meteorological Department has already predicted an above-normal monsoon with estimated rainfall of 106% of the long period average — would
Conditions have turned favourable for the La Nina phenomenon in the next few months, according to the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US. This holds both promise and warning for India. La Nina, historically, is associated with heavy rainfall during the southwest monsoon, which arrives in early June. The rains — the India Meteorological Department has already predicted an above-normal monsoon with estimated rainfall of 106% of the long period average — would be a welcome relief for the parched land in the Deccan, especially parts of Marathwada, which have faced drought-like conditions this year. Southern India and Uttarakhand have already started to receive pre-monsoon showers.
A good monsoon would also mean better crop yields, and, hopefully, relief from high food inflation. Last year’s El Nino saw a below-par monsoon (94.4% of long period average), which resulted in food grain production falling by 6% in the 2023-24 crop year over the preceding year, and caused retail food inflation to spike to 8.52% in February. The room for the central bank to ease rates narrowed significantly despite overall inflation remaining within its tolerance band, and the Union government opted for export bans and restrictions, which it relaxed a few days ago. Clearly, an abundant monsoon is likely to bring much relief to both farmers and consumers.
That said, the La Nina prediction is also a warning to be prepared for disruptive rains, which have become frequent and potent with the advent of the climate crisis. Warming, many experts hold, has caused monsoon patterns to turn erratic, with large volumes of precipitation being concentrated over a short period and weeks of unseasonal dry weather. Landslides and floods in Himachal Pradesh last year, and the 2018 floods in Kerala are evidence of the devastating consequences of changing monsoon behaviour. State and local governments need to be prepared with contingency plans and drills. From assessment of disaster management readiness to audits of dams, flood signalling and early warning systems, they must contend with long task lists.
A different challenge awaits urban centres, which have faced the brunt of downpours in recent years. Cities including Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Mumbai, have all had their inadequate physical infrastructure exposed. Unplanned and illegal developments have resulted in encroachments on tanks, lakes and wetlands and destroyed natural drainage systems. Municipal governments need to recognise this and prepare now.
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