The results of the byelection in south Bengal’s Falta seat brought fresh humiliation for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and boosted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a region that was once a citadel of Abhishek Banerjee, who must still be smarting from the last-minute withdrawal of his once-trusted associate, Jahangir Khan. Not only did the BJP candidate post the highest victory margin in the state but the TMC was pushed to fourth spot — due to Khan’s withdrawal — with
The results of the byelection in south Bengal’s Falta seat brought fresh humiliation for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and boosted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a region that was once a citadel of Abhishek Banerjee, who must still be smarting from the last-minute withdrawal of his once-trusted associate, Jahangir Khan. Not only did the BJP candidate post the highest victory margin in the state but the TMC was pushed to fourth spot — due to Khan’s withdrawal — with the Left Front candidate rising to the second position, further consolidating the statewide trend of cracks in the TMC’s Muslim vote base. In a state where the political Right has never had more than a toehold, the BJP government is less than three weeks old now. It is too early to draw political conclusions from its performance but two trends are apparent.
One, though the run-up to the West Bengal elections and the results were unprecedented, the aftermath has followed a familiar script. The polls saw 2.71 million people disenfranchised, the Election Commission take a more aggressive role than ever before, transfer more people in the state than in all other poll-bound regions 30 times over, and post roughly 300,000 paramilitary personnel. The results were the first time in 50 years when a party lost power in Bengal without facing any prior setback in local body or parliamentary polls. But since counting day, the TMC leadership’s predicament has brought back memories of what happened to the Left after 2011 — local cadres leaving en masse, mass resentment against party strongmen, legislators challenging the authority of Abhishek Banerjee, MPs resigning from party positions, even as the senior leadership is absent from the campaign trail. This is ominous for a party built around the personality of Mamata Banerjee with few second-rung mass leaders and the anointed successor — Abhishek Banerjee — yet to prove himself.
Two, power doesn’t quickly change hands in Bengal. Governments have transitioned only twice in the state in the last half a century. With 42 Lok Sabha seats and 16 Rajya Sabha seats, Bengal can return an impressive haul for the BJP that holds 208 of the 294 assembly seats. Moreover, since the turn of the decade, the BJP has only lost twice in states it ruled — Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh — underlining that it is difficult to dislodge the party once it grabs power.
Mamata Banerjee will have to summon every ounce of her street-fighting credo from the 1990s and 2000s if the TMC has to mount a comeback. Things are not looking good for one of India’s most successful regional politicians.
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