A disturbing sense of déjà vu has blanketed West Asia. American warplanes have, again, struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps positions across southern Iran — Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Jask — after a brief lull in a war that has simmered since the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader back in February. Iran has retaliated by attacking US bases in the region.
It is tragicomic that after a negotiated détente, the two countries have stumbled into a second round of a
A disturbing sense of déjà vu has blanketed West Asia. American warplanes have, again, struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps positions across southern Iran — Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Jask — after a brief lull in a war that has simmered since the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader back in February. Iran has retaliated by attacking US bases in the region.
It is tragicomic that after a negotiated détente, the two countries have stumbled into a second round of a war that has already gutted global stock markets, disturbed supply chains, set oil prices on fire, and disrupted almost every facet of the global economy. What is happening in West Asia is a troubling portent of conflicts in the new global order — where wars continue not because of singular disputes but due to the hubris of the leaders squaring off, playing to their domestic galleries where hardline stances help position them as strong figures. The so-called international community has been shown its (very limited) place in negotiating any cessation to the hostilities which now run the risk of turning into another prolonged war of attrition, akin to the one raging in Ukraine for four years now. Reports of Iran developing a ramjet propulsion system to add substantially faster anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles with the help of Russia’s missile specialists hint at a prolonged West Asian disturbance. Iran has gauged the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s policies and likely decided to stretch the conflict until the White House gets a new occupant, or at least the incumbent suffers some electoral setback in the 2026 midterms.
Clearly, this is a new, uncertain world where conflict and imprudent escalation will be the norm; the 21st-century economy and its interconnected nodes of production, consumption and supply chains will ensure that no nation can remain either unaffected or isolationist. What should India do? The country’s economy has shown remarkable resilience in the previous quarter by clocking 7.8% GDP growth. But the fresh volley of missile attacks — coupled with a global selloff, renewed worries around disruptions to oil flows, and the constant shadow of conflict hanging over two million Indians living and working in the Gulf States — shows that New Delhi is not out of the woods yet. It will have to chart a careful diplomatic course, run a tighter fiscal ship while working to plug capacity gaps. The prime minister’s recent warning about reining in profligate spending might soon seem prescient.
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