...
...
Next Story

Unpredictability is the new norm

A continued conflict in West Asia can derail every long- or medium-term plan

Updated on: Jul 08, 2026 08:46 PM IST
Advertisement

Grief has a logic of its own. During the Trojan War, Troy’s King Priam, lamenting his heroic son Hector’s death at the hands of Greek hero Achilles, meets the latter — who is also in mourning for his friend Patroclus — during a temporary ceasefire between their armies. Both the Greeks and the Trojans decide to honour their fallen warriors through funerary games, taking a break from a war already in its 12th year. Priam and Achilles, though being on

PREMIUMThe unpredictability in the region, that barely breathed easy with a cautious circulation of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, can now be seen as a norm not an aberration. (AFP)
The unpredictability in the region, that barely breathed easy with a cautious circulation of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, can now be seen as a norm not an aberration. (AFP)

Grief has a logic of its own. During the Trojan War, Troy’s King Priam, lamenting his heroic son Hector’s death at the hands of Greek hero Achilles, meets the latter — who is also in mourning for his friend Patroclus — during a temporary ceasefire between their armies. Both the Greeks and the Trojans decide to honour their fallen warriors through funerary games, taking a break from a war already in its 12th year. Priam and Achilles, though being on the opposite sides, recognise and acknowledge each other’s grief, treat each other with honour, and, smartly, terminate that encounter before vengeance overpowers the shared sense of loss.

PREMIUMThe unpredictability in the region, that barely breathed easy with a cautious circulation of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, can now be seen as a norm not an aberration. (AFP)
The unpredictability in the region, that barely breathed easy with a cautious circulation of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, can now be seen as a norm not an aberration. (AFP)

Cut to today, as Iran mourns its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, killed in Israel-US strikes on February 28, in a dramatic spectacle of collective grief and nationalism, neither virtue nor peace stands a chance. The hard-earned Iran-US ceasefire has been laid to rest much before the Ayatollah, whose death has become an existential issue for the country. Is Iran making a mistake by letting passions rise unchecked? Is revenge really the best way for Iran to counter US President Donald Trump’s aggressive talk (he has already termed the ceasefire dead, following Iran’s actions)? While Iran may have been correct in rejecting a one-sided peace agreement and having its own demands recognised before the signing of the peace pact on June 17, its current belligerence is unjustified. But when deaths become totems, logic is buried first.

The unpredictability in the region, that barely breathed easy with a cautious circulation of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, can now be seen as a norm not an aberration. Whether Iran is overplaying its hand by provoking the US and its allies will be decided in future. Meanwhile, there is no denying that the rest of the world must brace itself for an era of slow-burning fires which can singe economies. How the rest of the world deals with a clash of Trump’s unpredictability and the Islamic regime’s existential and civilisational ego will depend on agility, preparedness, and a dash of luck.

India has weathered the energy supply storm well so far but a continued conflict in West Asia has the capacity to derail every long- or medium-term plan. This holds true for every other country, including the US. Instead of expending time and resources on any peace-brokering efforts, it will be pertinent for global players to plan for the unplanned.

All Access.
One Subscription.

Get 360° coverage—from daily headlines
to 100 year archives.

E-Paper
Full
Archives
Full Access to
HT App & Website
Games
 
Unlock a world of Benefits with HT! From insightful newsletters to real-time news alerts and a personalized news feed – it's all here, just a click away! -Login Now!
Unlock a world of Benefits with HT! From insightful newsletters to real-time news alerts and a personalized news feed – it's all here, just a click away! -Login Now!
SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON