How batting debacles have played out in Tests

This dataset shows that the odds are stacked against sides that experience such a debacle, especially in recent years

India’s first innings score of 46 in the ongoing Test match against New Zealand in Bengaluru is the 18th lowest innings score recorded by any team in 2,555 Test matches. It is also India’s lowest in 292 Tests at home. India are not the first team to construct an innings of batting that is essentially a write-off, and they won’t be the last. But what was the final outcome in such matches? How often have teams found a way back? How has this changed over time?

We looked at the 100 lowest scores recorded in a Test innings. (PTI)

To answer this, we looked at the 100 lowest scores recorded in a Test innings (102 actually, as there are 7 innings with an identical total of 77 runs). This dataset shows that the odds are stacked against sides that experience such a debacle, especially in recent years. But, as is the nature of sport, there’s a sliver of hope — and it invokes the spirit of Ben Stokes in 2019.

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  Lowering the bar

  But as Test cricket evolved, the occurrence of such debacles reduced relative to the amount of Test matches played. Of these 102 lowest innings scores, 16 were recorded during the 25-year period from 1976 to 2000, amounting to 2.1% of tests during that period — or about one in 50 Tests. But this century — featuring 35 of these lowest scores — has seen the first reversal of this trend. These 35 innings account for 3.5% of Tests that have been played during this period.
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  Slim odds

  In the 21st century, every Test-playing country barring newbie Afghanistan has the ignominy of featuring in this list of 102 lowest innings totals. England and Pakistan lead with 6 instances each, followed by New Zealand with 5. India has 3 instances, while Australia and South Africa — the two best sides in Test cricket during this period — have 2 instances each. The team saddled with a low-scoring innings, more often than not, go on to lose the match. Of the 101 lowest innings scores (excluding the current match), the team went on to lose 91 times. Three Test matches were drawn, all of them on account of bad weather truncating playing time or three-day Test matches, and not because of rearguard action. But there are 7 instances when a team were able to bounce back and win the match.
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  The Stokes show

  Six of these 7 instances of comeback wins came before 1950. The seventh is what is known as the “Ben Stokes Test”. This was 2019 in England, against Australia. Batting second, England folded for 67 in their first innings. But in their fourth innings, they chased down a target of 359 runs, with Stokes remaining not out on 135. Memorably, this included a 76-run stand for the last wicket with Jack Leach, who contributed 1 run to their partnership. In the context of a turnaround, the innings in which this batting debacle occurs also matters. As many as 28 of these 102 batting performances have come in the first innings of a Test match. But in the rare occurrence that teams in our dataset have salvaged a draw or managed to win, their poor showing came in the very first innings of the match, as is the case with India in Bengaluru. Of the 10 instances of wins and draws in these 101 lowest scores, 6 came after first inning routs.
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  Remembering Australia 2020

  In Bengaluru, India are up against a side that have been exceptional in the recent past in closing out positions of advantage. Besides Bengaluru, there have been 5 other instances when New Zealand have been the bowling side in this list of 102 lowest scores. They went on to win all 5 Tests. Three of those Tests were in 2005 and 2012 (both against Zimbabwe) and in 2018 (against England). India, on the other side, have never won a Test after such a batting debacle. Of the 102 lowest scores, India features in 9. Before Bengaluru, India lost all 8 Test matches. Of broader interest to this Indian side would be a Test series outcome, in which India are getting better. Notably, in 2020, they were skittled out for 36 in the second innings of the first test in Australia. They lost Virat Kohli for the rest of the series. And yet they won the 4-match series 2-1.