The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 18 of the 42 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in West Bengal was one of the biggest surprises in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP won just two PCs in state the 2014 elections, which was also the best ever tally for the party till then. While the 2019 election results in West Bengal generated a lot of traction for the BJP’s campaign in the 2021 assembly election, the final results were disappointing for the
Regional dynamics in West Bengal politicsSouth Bengal’s dominance in state’s politics
The Trivedi Center for Political Data (TCPD) database on election results lists 19 districts in West Bengal. While the number of districts in the state has increased to 23 , this analysis has used older districts to classify the state into five sub-regions. They are North Bengal (Cooch Behar, Darjeeling and Jalpaiguri), Central Bengal (Maldah, Murshidabad and North and South Dinajpur), South Bengal (Hooghly, Howrah, Kolkata and North and South 24 Parganas), Burdwan (Bardhaman, Birbhum and Nadia) and Junglemahal (Bankura, Purulia and East and West Medinipur). 15 out of the 42 PCs in the state are in the sub-region of South Bengal which makes it the most important in the state. South Bengal was the only sub-region where the TMC managed to get a higher seat share than the BJP in 2019. Of the 18 PCs which the BJP won in 2019, only two came from the sub-region of South Bengal. In fact, the BJP had a higher seat share in three out of the five sub-regions in the state over the TMC in 2019 and the only reason the TMC ended up with a higher number of PCs than the BJP was its ability to maintain its dominance in South Bengal.
But the TMC managed to surge ahead of the BJP in every region except North Bengal in the 2021 elections
This is what explains the massive increase in the TMC’s seat share between 2019 and 2021 elections. It managed to retain its almost complete dominance in South Bengal and also edged past the BJP in every sub-region of the state except North Bengal where the BJP won a majority of seats even in 2021. This makes the BJP’s challenge in the 2024 elections twofold. It must try and get back its lead over the TMC outside South Bengal to even get back to its 2019 tally. And if it wants to surge past the TMC’s seat tally, it would need to make a big dent in the TMC’s South Bengal stronghold.
Religious demographics and polarisation might have played a role in reversal in political fortunes between 2019 and 2021
27% of West Bengal’s population is Muslim according to the 2011 census figures. This makes West Bengal the second-largest state after Assam in terms of share of Muslims in total population. West Bengal’s Muslim population, however, is not distributed equally across regions. This is as high as 55% for Central Bengal and between 10%-15% for Junglemahal and North Bengal. TMC’s biggest gains between 2019 and 2021, both in terms of vote share and seat share, came from the Central Bengal sub-region of the state, which also has the biggest share of Muslim population. When read with the fact that the BJP almost maintained its vote share in the Central Bengal sub-region, this suggests that the TMC gained from a large consolidation of Muslim voters who might have supported the Congress-Left combine in the 2019 elections.
Inference
The numbers given above show that the final outcome of the 2024 contest in West Bengal will depend on two factors. Even a small swing of voters from the TMC to BJP in Burdwan and Junglemahal sub-regions could help the BJP reclaim its 2019 advantage in these two regions. However, as long as the TMC can maintain its Muslim consolidation in the Central Bengal sub-region and its overall dominance in the South Bengal sub-region, it will be difficult for the BJP to edge past it in the state. Perhaps this is what explains the BJP’s relentless attacks on the Sandeshkhali issue (in South Bengal) and TMC’s refusal to strike an alliance with the Congress and the Left in the state.
{{^htLoading}}{{/htLoading}}{{#usCountry}}{{/usCountry}} 