It is now almost 10 years since Nitish Kumar imposed prohibition in Bihar. Its stated objectives were to prevent crime, abuse of women by alcoholic male family members, and divert money spent on alcohol towards more useful purposes. Nitish Kumar was in alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) when he imposed prohibition and has changed sides thrice since, allying with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2017, jumping ship to join hands with the RJD in 2022, and going
- NFHS data shows that drinking among men came down after prohibitionThe National Family and Health Surveys (NFHS) gives data on the 15-49 age group men who consume alcohol. This number increased significantly between 1998-99 and 2005-06, fell somewhat in 2015-16 (the last survey before prohibition was implemented in Bihar in April 2016), and fell sharply by the 2019-21 round, although it is still 17%. Among men who consume alcohol, the share who consume it almost every day in Bihar decreased to 10.3% in 2019-21 from 13.7% in 2015-16. However, the share of those who consume alcohol about once a week marginally increased from 36.2% to 36.8%. In comparison, Gujarat—the only other major state with alcohol prohibition—has seen the share of alcohol consuming men decrease from 16% in 2005-06 to 11% in 2015-16, and further to just 5.9% in 2019-21.
- But data from the consumption surveys suggests toddy replaced the bottleNFHS is not the only source for data on alcohol consumption. Consumption Expenditure Surveys (CES) conducted in 2011-12 and 2023-24 can also tell us about the share of households which report alcohol consumption. The data shows that consumption of country liquor, beer and foreign/refined liquor or wine fell in Bihar between the 2011-12 and 2023-24 rounds in contrast to the all-India trend. However, the share of households reporting toddy consumption more than doubled in Bihar. This suggests that a prohibition has perhaps nudged Biharis to shift from the bottle to toddy.
- And Bihar still has a higher prevalence of domestic violence against womenThis is perhaps the most damning statistic about prohibition’s impact in Bihar. NFHS gives data on the share of married women who have ever experienced physical/sexual violence by their husbands. The incidence of this problem is significantly larger in Bihar than the rest of India. While this number fell marginally both in Bihar and the rest of the country between 2015-16 and 2019-21 (pre- and post-Bihar prohibition NFHS rounds), what is more disturbing about Bihar is the fact that a much larger share of women reported violence from husbands who allegedly did not drink in the post-prohibition NFHS round in Bihar. To be sure, alcohol drinking husbands were still more likely to be violent than those who did not. These statistics only underline that prohibition had a limited influence in curbing spousal violence, since around half of it was committed by non-drinking husbands even earlier.
- Prohibition’s gains are far from decisive, while the revenue loss is realUntil it imposed prohibition, excise duties were more than a tenth of Bihar’s own tax revenue. Prohibition shut this revenue stream; even as illicit alcohol continues to be sold in the state. The government is losing taxes, legitimate business is losing good money, and bootleggers are prospering and those consuming it are perhaps paying more money than earlier. In 2024-25, Bihar was ranked among the lowest (only ahead of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal and Assam among major states) in terms of own tax revenue to GSDP ratio in the country. It was ranked way ahead at seventh in 2015-16 before the state imposed prohibition.
Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. He heads the newsroom's data journalism team, which produces Number Theory, a daily data-driven feature for the print edition and the HT app. Number Theory uses data analysis and story-telling based on it to add value to the newsroom’s daily coverage by putting stories in a larger context on a range of issues, including politics, macroeconomy, markets, global affairs and climate. Under his leadership HT’s data journalism work has established itself as a niche product in Indian journalism and pushed the boundaries of marrying academic rigour with news sense and speed. Along with writing and editing data stories, he has also been writing a weekly political economy column called Terms of Trade for HT Premium. A trained economist with an MPhil degree from Jawaharlal Nehru University, Kishore has also been a visiting fellow at the Centre for Advanced Studies of India (CASI) at the University of Pennsylvania. Along with his journalistic work, his writings have also appeared in journals such as the Economic and Political Weekly and working papers for CASI and UNESCAP.
Abhishek Jha is Assistant Editor-Data at Hindustan Times. He uses statistical programming to generate newsworthy insights from large datasets. He is part of the team that produces Number Theory, a daily data story feature of the paper’s print edition. Since March 2024, he has been writing Weather Bee, a weekly column for the Hindustan Times website. He is a chemical engineer by training, who specialises in stories related to weather, climate, and the environment. Jha has been at HT since 2018, where he offers data-driven perspective and analysis on politics, environment, weather, climate, economy and society. His work includes data coverage of elections in India and abroad, including the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections; the disasters and extreme weather resulting from changing climate, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, and dwindling snow cap in the Himalayas; the factors that drive poor air quality in northern India; the changing patterns of land use; the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on labour market conditions; the changing pattern of consumer spending seen in the new consumer spending surveys; and social norms seen in the surveys such as the National Family Health Survey.
Sreedev Krishnakumar is a data journalist who specialises in stories at the intersection of the economy, geopolitics, politics and finance. His work combines data analysis, reporting and visual storytelling to explain complex issues through evidence-based journalism, with a focus on making public data accessible and meaningful for readers. He joined the Data and Political Economy team at Hindustan Times in 2024 after working as a correspondent/data journalist at Moneycontrol, where he covered macroeconomics, markets, public finance and business. Over the course of his career, he has developed expertise in analysing large datasets, building interactive visualisations and using computational methods to uncover trends and patterns that inform public debate. Sreedev holds a Postgraduate Diploma in Integrated Multimedia Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism. His reporting interests include finance, economics, geopolitics, trade, technology and development.