Prohibition’s hangover in Bihar | Number Theory

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It is now almost 10 years since Nitish Kumar imposed prohibition in Bihar. Its stated objectives were to prevent crime, abuse of women by alcoholic male family members, and divert money spent on alcohol towards more useful purposes. Nitish Kumar was in alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) when he imposed prohibition and has changed sides thrice since, allying with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2017, jumping ship to join hands with the RJD in 2022, and going back to the BJP again in 2024. The fact that prohibition has continued through these flip flops, suggests that it has the support of all three major parties in the state, namely, the Janata Dal (United), the RJD, and the BJP. As Bihar heads into its second assembly elections after imposing prohibition, it is a good occasion to ask how effective the policy has been in the state. Here is what the data shows.

Representational image (Unsplash)

Prohibition’s hangover in Bihar

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  NFHS data shows that drinking among men came down after prohibition

  The National Family and Health Surveys (NFHS) gives data on the 15-49 age group men who consume alcohol. This number increased significantly between 1998-99 and 2005-06, fell somewhat in 2015-16 (the last survey before prohibition was implemented in Bihar in April 2016), and fell sharply by the 2019-21 round, although it is still 17%. Among men who consume alcohol, the share who consume it almost every day in Bihar decreased to 10.3% in 2019-21 from 13.7% in 2015-16. However, the share of those who consume alcohol about once a week marginally increased from 36.2% to 36.8%. In comparison, Gujarat—the only other major state with alcohol prohibition—has seen the share of alcohol consuming men decrease from 16% in 2005-06 to 11% in 2015-16, and further to just 5.9% in 2019-21.
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  But data from the consumption surveys suggests toddy replaced the bottle

  NFHS is not the only source for data on alcohol consumption. Consumption Expenditure Surveys (CES) conducted in 2011-12 and 2023-24 can also tell us about the share of households which report alcohol consumption. The data shows that consumption of country liquor, beer and foreign/refined liquor or wine fell in Bihar between the 2011-12 and 2023-24 rounds in contrast to the all-India trend. However, the share of households reporting toddy consumption more than doubled in Bihar. This suggests that a prohibition has perhaps nudged Biharis to shift from the bottle to toddy.
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  And Bihar still has a higher prevalence of domestic violence against women

  This is perhaps the most damning statistic about prohibition’s impact in Bihar. NFHS gives data on the share of married women who have ever experienced physical/sexual violence by their husbands. The incidence of this problem is significantly larger in Bihar than the rest of India. While this number fell marginally both in Bihar and the rest of the country between 2015-16 and 2019-21 (pre- and post-Bihar prohibition NFHS rounds), what is more disturbing about Bihar is the fact that a much larger share of women reported violence from husbands who allegedly did not drink in the post-prohibition NFHS round in Bihar. To be sure, alcohol drinking husbands were still more likely to be violent than those who did not. These statistics only underline that prohibition had a limited influence in curbing spousal violence, since around half of it was committed by non-drinking husbands even earlier.
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  Prohibition’s gains are far from decisive, while the revenue loss is real

  Until it imposed prohibition, excise duties were more than a tenth of Bihar’s own tax revenue. Prohibition shut this revenue stream; even as illicit alcohol continues to be sold in the state. The government is losing taxes, legitimate business is losing good money, and bootleggers are prospering and those consuming it are perhaps paying more money than earlier. In 2024-25, Bihar was ranked among the lowest (only ahead of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal and Assam among major states) in terms of own tax revenue to GSDP ratio in the country. It was ranked way ahead at seventh in 2015-16 before the state imposed prohibition.