The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict in Europe, when it started in February 2022 – some see Russian annexation of Crimea in 2018 as its beginning – was seen as a battle for preserving the post-Cold War liberal order by many commentators. Almost four years later, and more importantly, a year since Donald Trump came back as the US President, opinions on what is at stake in the conflict are now very different. Trump wants the war to end on very different
- Ukraine has suffered more in the immediate aftermath of the war than RussiaBoth Russia and Ukraine suffered an economic contraction in 2022, the year in which the ongoing military conflict began. However, if one were to compare their economic trajectories with pre-war GDP in 2021, Ukraine seems to have suffered more than Russia. Latest IMF data expects Russia’s 2025 GDP to be 138.9% of its 2021 GDP compared to 104% for Ukraine. To be sure, IMF projections do show the Russian economy slowing down going forward, suggesting that it is finally beginning to show the adverse effects of the ongoing conflict.
- But a Russia-Ukraine conflict was never a match among equalsThis is the most important thing to remember when analysing the conflict. Ukraine, on its own, is not a match for Russia. Its nominal GDP in 2021 was 11% of Russia’s GDP and its military spending was just 10% of Russia’s. Even though Ukraine has increased its defence spending to the highest in the world at 34.48% of GDP in 2024, it was still 43% of Russian spending which climbed to 7% of Russian GDP.
- This is where Ukraine is dependent on aid in general and US aid in particularOne of the most dramatic images of the Russia-Ukraine war came not from the battlefield but from The Oval Office in White House when President Trump and his deputy gave a dressing down to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. There was a reason Zelensky had to bear with Trump: US aid to Ukraine is indispensable to its war effort and, one could say, existence itself. The numbers say it all. Of the $365.6 billion bilateral aid Ukraine has received since 2022, $130.65 billion has come from the US alone. Since the US stopped its aid to Ukraine in February 2025 — it is still helping Ukraine with intelligence and other defence support — Europe has had to ramp up their aid, allocating 43.45 billion Euros since then as of October, much higher than the 23 billion Euros they had allocated over the six months leading up to February. Ukraine’s aid-dependence on the US – both economic and military – is what makes Trump’s blueprint for ending the war -- it will entail Ukraine ceding a large part of its territory to Russia -- sort of binding on both Ukraine and Europe.
- Russia’s war economy is also under strain because of its dwindling energy revenuesOil and gas revenue, which finances much of Russia’s federal budget, has fallen markedly in 2025, widening the deficit and pushing the government towards higher taxes and greater domestic borrowing. Although the Urals (Russian crude oil price) discount to Brent is partly engineered by Russia to keep exports flowing under the G7 price cap, this strategy exposes the budget to global price swings. With Urals selling at roughly 70% of Brent since 2022, Russia becomes fiscally vulnerable when Brent falls because the discounted price could undershoot what the government needs to balance its budget. According to energy market analytics firm Incorrys, if Brent dips below about $60, a significant share of Russian production becomes economically unviable due to higher extraction and transport costs. Trump’s financial sanctions on Russian oil companies and 25% additional tariff on India for buying Russian crude oil – it was more a convenient than principled effort to squeeze Russian oil revenues given China buys more Russian crude than India but faces no such tariffs – are a clear message to Russia that a continuation of the war would put further squeeze on its economy.
Sreedev Krishnakumar is a data journalist who specialises in stories at the intersection of the economy, geopolitics, politics and finance. His work combines data analysis, reporting and visual storytelling to explain complex issues through evidence-based journalism, with a focus on making public data accessible and meaningful for readers. He joined the Data and Political Economy team at Hindustan Times in 2024 after working as a correspondent/data journalist at Moneycontrol, where he covered macroeconomics, markets, public finance and business. Over the course of his career, he has developed expertise in analysing large datasets, building interactive visualisations and using computational methods to uncover trends and patterns that inform public debate. Sreedev holds a Postgraduate Diploma in Integrated Multimedia Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism. His reporting interests include finance, economics, geopolitics, trade, technology and development.
Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. He heads the newsroom's data journalism team, which produces Number Theory, a daily data-driven feature for the print edition and the HT app. Number Theory uses data analysis and story-telling based on it to add value to the newsroom’s daily coverage by putting stories in a larger context on a range of issues, including politics, macroeconomy, markets, global affairs and climate. Under his leadership HT’s data journalism work has established itself as a niche product in Indian journalism and pushed the boundaries of marrying academic rigour with news sense and speed. Along with writing and editing data stories, he has also been writing a weekly political economy column called Terms of Trade for HT Premium. A trained economist with an MPhil degree from Jawaharlal Nehru University, Kishore has also been a visiting fellow at the Centre for Advanced Studies of India (CASI) at the University of Pennsylvania. Along with his journalistic work, his writings have also appeared in journals such as the Economic and Political Weekly and working papers for CASI and UNESCAP.