Case count to reach over 43k by November 30, predicts health department

Nearly 7,000 people in the district are likely to be infected by the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) infection in the next 19 days, according to a projection made

Nearly 7,000 people in the district are likely to be infected by the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) infection in the next 19 days, according to a projection made by the state health department. These new cases will take the tally to almost 43,300 cases in Gurugram by November 30.

With the current upward trend, nearly 6,000 new infections have already been reported in just 11 days. Experts, however, said that new cases can go beyond the estimated figures due to the accelerated pace of SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission in the district.

Data available with the state health department shows that by November 30, the overall tally in Gurugram will reach 43,311, of which 5,197 will be active cases. The projections were made based on the case trend till November 1. Record spikes have been reported in Gurugram from October 16, with over 500 new cases being reported every day. The spike reached a maximum of 964 on November 8. On Wednesday, at least 726 new cases were recorded, taking the tally to 36,879. Of these 5,880 are currently active.

The district took more than a month and a half to reach the count of 20,000 cases from 10,000 (as depicted in the graph). In the following month, 10,000 new cases were added, taking the count to nearly 30,000 by October-end. But in just 11 days of November, almost 6,000 new cases have been reported, with the weekly positivity rate almost at 16%, similar to the July trajectory, when positivity rate reached almost 18%. In August and September, the weekly average positivity rate fluctuated between 9% and 11%.

According to the prediction, at least 312 of 602 allocated beds with oxygen supply will remain occupied this month. Likewise, 156 intensive care unit (ICU) beds of 817 beds and 52 ventilators out of 343 will be engaged for Covid-19 patients. The projection takes into account only Gurugram patients. An equal number of out-station Covid-19 patients from parts of Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and other states are also admitted in Gurugram hospitals, leading to occupancy of nearly 70% of ICU beds in the city. Among the currently active cases, 396 (almost 6.7%) seriously ill patients from Gurugram are in hospital.

Dr Virender Yadav, the chief medical officer, said, “Only 2% of the new infections require hospitalisation. Considering the high recovery rate, there will be a downfall in active cases in the next 10 days. Meanwhile, fluctuations of 10-20% in daily new cases will continue now. More than 93% of Covid-19 patients are under home isolation. It is likely that we would manage serious cases with the currently available infrastructure. If required, bed capacity will be increased further.”

Rajeev Arora, additional chief secretary, said, “It is the third spike across the Delhi-NCR, which will slightly slump in a few days after Diwali. It is a cycle which will be stabilised. We are prepared to tackle the new cases as sufficient health care infrastructure is available in Gurugram and Faridabad.”

On the other hand, Dr Rajesh Kumar, former head of community medicine and community health department, PGIMER-Chandigarh, said that projected numbers can go beyond the 43,000.

“Covid-19 predictions are made taking the case trend of the last 15 days. Based on it, forecast for the coming 15 days or a month is done. These estimations are based on worst case and real case scenarios. Government generally take figures between the worst and the real. Several factors like daily growth rate, doubling time and positivity rate are taken into account for the projections. Since it is a dynamic process, the numbers can vary every week.”

Currently, the growth rate of the new cases is nearly 2%, while cases are doubling in every 38 days.