The monsoon rainfall is expected to be “above normal” at 106% of long period average with a model error of +/-4%, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its second stage of Long Range Forecast of southwest monsoon on Monday.
There is a 32% probability that monsoon will be above normal (105 to 110% of LPA) and a 29% probability that monsoon rainfall will be excess (over 110% of LPA), IMD said. The LPA for the season as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
There is likely to be normal rainfall over northwest India (92 to 108% of LPA); below normal rain over east and northeast India (<94% of LPA); above normal rainfall over central India (106% of LPA); above normal rainfall over peninsular India (106% of LPA).
Most importantly, the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is expected to record above normal rain (106%) of LPA.
“We are sticking to our earlier forecast of above normal rain and there is a very good confidence around 61% probability that monsoon will be above normal or excess. So, we can expect good rains this year,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
Last year monsoon was “below normal” at 94.4% of LPA. IMD had however forecast a “normal” monsoon last year at 96% of LPA with error margin of +/-4%. Before that, 2022 monsoon was “above normal” at 106% of LPA; 2021 recorded a “normal” monsoon at 99% of LPA and 2020 monsoon was again “above normal” at 109% of LPA.
{{/usCountry}}Last year monsoon was “below normal” at 94.4% of LPA. IMD had however forecast a “normal” monsoon last year at 96% of LPA with error margin of +/-4%. Before that, 2022 monsoon was “above normal” at 106% of LPA; 2021 recorded a “normal” monsoon at 99% of LPA and 2020 monsoon was again “above normal” at 109% of LPA.
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