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Assembly elections: TMC wins in Bengal; BJP in Assam; LDF in Kerala
The state elections of 2021 took place at a time when institutions and the political leadership believed that India had turned a corner in the battle against the pandemic — but as campaigning proceeded, India’s Covid case count began rising, bringing a second wave of Covid-19 infections
As India began counting votes for the recently held elections to assemblies in four states and a Union Territory, in the backdrop of a crushing second wave of Covid-19 infections, leads indicated a comfortable lead for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and allies in Tamil Nadu; for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal; a comfortable lead for the BJP in Assam, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala, and the National Democratic Alliance in Puducherry.
To be sure, both the direction and nature of these leads will alter as counting proceeds.
By 6pm, the Election Commission of India portal showed TMC leading in 204 seats in West Bengal while it had won 5 seats with BJP leading on 80; in Assam, BJP+ is leading on 80 seats; in Tamil Nadu, DMK+ is leading on 147 seats, while the AIADMK+ is leading on 86; in Kerala, LDF is leading on 94 seats, while the UDF leads on 44; and in Puducherry, allies AINRC and BJP are leading on 3 seats while they won 10 seats.
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Both the timing and the nature of the contest in the five states have lent it a special significance.
The state elections of 2021 took place at a time when institutions and the political leadership believed that India had turned a corner in the battle against the pandemic — but as campaigning proceeded, India’s Covid case count began rising in March and April, bringing a second wave of Covid-19 infections which has strained the health system, and led to an unprecedented number of cases and deaths globally every day. By mid to late April, parties stepped back from crowded rallies but public health experts have pointed out that having large gatherings, in defiance of Covid protocols, may be among the factors leading to the surge. Both the Election Commission and political parties have come under criticism for the manner and timing of elections.
But in terms of the substantive political competition, the battle in some of India’s most politically crucial states is expected to have national implications.
In Bengal, the incumbent chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, faces a fierce challenge from the BJP — emboldened by its win of 18 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the state. The BJP campaign was led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, home minister Amit Shah, and party chief JP Nadda. The party’s campaign rested on the plank of extending central welfare schemes to the state, bringing in industrialisation and jobs, and polarisation and “appeasement”, based on its allegation that the government had tilted towards minorities in a bid to consolidate the Hindu vote. The TMC campaign rested on Banerjee’s image as a daughter of the state and Bengali sub-nationalism, opposition to “outsiders” which is how the party sought to portray the BJP, the state’s own welfare schemes, and Muslim support while still seeking to win over Hindu votes and dispel allegations of appeasement.
In Tamil Nadu, a new political era is about to commence with the first elections held in the absence of the state’s two tallest leaders — M Karunanidhi and J Jayalithaa. The incumbent All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) — after two terms in power and now in alliance with BJP — faces a stiff challenge from the opposition DMK-led alliance. The DMK is relying on anti incumbency, the opposition to BJP on the grounds that it is culturally insensitive towards Tamil aspirations, a strong organisation, its wider alliance, and MK Stalin’s image. The AIADMK is relying on chief minister E K Palinaswami’s image as someone who has delivered despite having got the position after intra-party factional intrigues, social engineering, and the support provided by BJP as an ally.
Kerala has traditionally seen power alternate between the Left and the Congress — but in this election, all eyes are on whether, after four decades, this pattern will be broken with the Left returning to power. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan is relying on his government’s record of handling natural disasters and public health outbreaks and a wider social alliance while the Congress is largely relying on anti-incumbency — the fact that Rahul Gandhi is a member of Parliament from the state adds to the importance of the state for the party. The BJP is making an aggressive push in the state but is widely expected to be a distant third, with the question being whether it increases its vote share and which of the two major parties is affected by BJP’s possible rise.
And in Assam, elections are being held in the wake of the agitation around the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the challenges associated with the National Register of Citizens. While the grand alliance of the Opposition — Mahajot as it is called in the state, which includes the Congress, Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front, and smaller sub regional forces — is banking on anti incumbency and issues of Assamese identity being undermined by the CAA, the BJP is banking on its welfare schemes as well as its own narrative of preserving Assamese identity by portraying the opposition, especially AIUDF, as sympathetic to “illegal immigrants” in what is seen as an attempt to to polarise the electorate.
