Cyclone Biparjoy only third in 60 years to hit Gujarat in June. Expert explains anomaly

Cyclones of the Arabian Sea mostly travel in the Northwest direction, absorbing the moisture and decreasing the amount of rainfall.

Cyclone Biparjoy forecast to hit the Gujarat coast on Thursday is the only third cyclone in nearly 60 years to hit the western coast. Experts say that the increase in frequency and intensity is indicating the negative impact of climate change. (Click here to get the latest updates on Cyclone Biparjoy LIVE)

The formation process of cyclone Biparjoy began in the Arabian Sea. (REPRESENTATIVE IMAGE)(HT_PRINT)

Is climate change behind it?

Mahesh Palawat, vice president of meteorology and climate change Skymet Weather, a private Indian weather forecasting agency, told Hindustan Times that deteriorating climatic conditions could be one of the possible reasons for the anomaly in weather.

“In the month of June, as the monsoon is onset, the possibility of occurring cyclone is limited to only the first half and further cyclonic activities seize due to monsoon till September,” he said in a Twitter Space on Tuesday.

He further added most cyclones develop in the Bay of Bengal, but for the last 4-5 years cyclones in the Arabian Sea are frequently occurring.

June cyclones on the Gujarat coast are a rare occurrence

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Cyclone Biparjoy would be the third cyclone to impact the western state in June since 1965.

"Based on data from 1965 to 2022 for the month of June, 13 cyclones developed over the Arabian Sea. Of these, two crossed the Gujarat coast, one Maharashtra, one Pakistan coast, three Oman-Yemen coasts and six weakened over the sea," the IMD said. The frequency and intensity are increasing.

How is this change in weather going to affect monsoon?

“The cyclone of the Bay of Bengal mostly travels from West Bengal, Odisha, and Andra Pradesh towards Bangladesh and increases the monsoon,” Skymet's Palawat said.

On the other hand, cyclones of the Arabian Sea mostly travel in the Northwest direction, absorbing the moisture and decreasing the amount of rainfall.

“Usually, these cyclones travel towards Oman and Yaman, and only 2 out of them come towards India. They absorb moisture from the west coast and central India and decrease the rainfall in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Central India resulting in these areas being dry,” he added.

Cyclone Biparjoy latest updates

According to Skymet, the sea surface temperature in the extreme northeast Arabian Sea has decreased from 31°C to 29°C, resulting in a slight weakening of Cyclone Biparjoy.

It has now weakened to a very severe cyclonic storm with winds of 118-166 kmph, as opposed to an extremely severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 167-221 kmph.

However, as the storm progresses towards Kutch, it is expected that the wind intensity will gradually decrease.

(Inputs from PTI)