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Daily cases may double in 15 days if norms flouted: Expert
The daily cases in Bengaluru are likely to double by April 20 if people continue to neglect maintaining social distancing and do not adhere to Covid-19 protocols , a member of the expert panel constituted by the state government said on Sunday
The daily cases in Bengaluru are likely to double by April 20 if people continue to neglect maintaining social distancing and do not adhere to Covid-19 protocols , a member of the expert panel constituted by the state government said on Sunday.
Girdhara R Babu, epidemiologist and professor at the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI) and a member of Karnataka’s technical advisory committee (TAC) on Covid-19 said that most of the congregations are preventable and measures that could have been taken at a local level is fast evolving and necessitating national level mitigation.
“At this rate, #Bengaluru will have about 6,500 daily cases by April 20. Even if 10% of them require hospitalisation, the health system will run out of capacity in (a) few days. We need action now, not tomorrow. Stay home people, wear masks if going out and get (a) vaccine when eligible,” Babu said in a Twitter post on Sunday.
Bengaluru reported 2,787 new infections in the 24 hours on Saturday that takes its active case count to 28,098. The active case count in Karnataka approached the 40,000 mark as 4,553 more infections were reported across the state.
Babu said that this was a “conservative estimate” and not a pessimistic approach. He said that even if 10% of those testing positive each day require hospitalisation, the system will collapse.
The predictions come at a time when Bengaluru and several other districts of Karnataka have seen a sharp spike in cases, indicating that the second wave of infections were spreading faster than what was seen the first time around since last March.
“While the lockdown in 2020 was mostly unavoidable, the impending one in 2021 is mostly preventable,” Babu added.
The area of concern remains the rapidly surging positivity rate in the state. In the 24 hours on Saturday, the positivity rate remained at 3.79% and 331 persons were in the intensive care units of various hospitals in the state including 158 in Bengaluru alone.
Mysuru, about 125 kms from Bengaluru reported 260 new cases while the situation in Bidar, Kalaburagi, Tumakuru, Bengaluru Rural, Hassan and Dharwad among other places also deteriorated steadily, shows official data. There were 93 new infections in Ballari, 147 in Bidar, 155 in Bengaluru Rural, 83 in Dakshina Kannada, 100 in Dharwad, 104 in Hassan, 170 in Kalaburagi and 107 in Tumakuru, data shows.
The state government is hoping that the vaccination will help contain the spread of the virus. However, Babu said that the vaccination can prevent Covid-19 from turning serious or fatal but does not provide immunity from the virus. Those who have got both doses of the virus should continue to wear masks as they are not immune from the virus and can spread it further, he added
The Karnataka government has so far vaccinated 4,355,893 persons in all categories that include both the first and second doses.
In a brief statement on Sunday, the Chief Minister’s Office (CMO) said that on request from Karnataka, the government of India is making an emergency supply of 15.25 lakh doses to the state. The statement added that the state has 7 lakh vaccines and that the state inoculated 2.5 lakh people in one day on Saturday.
“Karnataka will receive 15,25,500 doses of Covid-19 vaccine tomorrow in two consignments. One consignment of 5,25,500 doses will arrive at Belagavi by road and another consignment of 10,00,000 doses will arrive at Bengaluru by air through a late evening flight,” K Sudhakar, Karnataka’s health, family welfare and medical education minister said on Sunday.
