The Congress has opened channels with former Gujarat chief minister Shankersinh Vaghela, 86, for his possible return to the party, nearly a decade after his exit triggered a series of defections from the Gujarat Congress ahead of the 2017 Assembly election.
Gujarat Congress president Amit Chavda said discussions are underway with Vaghela and that the party would take next steps after talks with its leadership. A meeting between Vaghela and Congress leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, is also expected before a decision is taken.
Vaghela’s dramatic departure from the Congress in July 2017 following differences with the party leadership came right ahead of the high-stakes Rajya Sabha poll in August, in which late Congress veteran Ahmed Patel was seeking re-election.
Fourteen Congress MLAs, including Vaghela, left the party around the time. Three of them, including Balvantsinh Rajput, crossed over to the Bharatiya Janata Party before the Rajya Sabha elections. Rajput was subsequently fielded in the Rajya Sabha against Ahmed Patel.
The high-voltage contest ended with Patel scraping through by a single vote, saved by Bharatiya Tribal Party leader Chhotubhai Vasava. The Congress expelled eight MLAs, including Vaghela, for cross-voting.
By the time the Congress headed into the December 2017 assembly elections, the Congress had lost 17 leaders. The BJP fielded many of them. Nonetheless, the Congress delivered its best performance in over two decades, securing 77 seats against the BJP’s 99. However, continuous defections in subsequent years eroded the party’s numbers, reducing its strength significantly.
{{/usCountry}}By the time the Congress headed into the December 2017 assembly elections, the Congress had lost 17 leaders. The BJP fielded many of them. Nonetheless, the Congress delivered its best performance in over two decades, securing 77 seats against the BJP’s 99. However, continuous defections in subsequent years eroded the party’s numbers, reducing its strength significantly.
{{/usCountry}}After a series of defections and by-elections, the BJP went into the 2022 Assembly election with 111 MLAs, while the Congress was reduced to 59. In 2022, the BJP fielded 37 leaders who had switched from the Congress since 2017; 34 of them won. The 37 include the 17 leaders who joined the BJP in 2017 and 20 who had joined after the 2017 assembly election.
But nothing turned out right for Vaghela.
After leaving the Congress, Vaghela launched the Jan Vikalp Morcha in 2017, then joined the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and later formed the Praja Shakti Democratic Party. But he couldn’t win a single seat.
His son, Mahendrasinh, also left the Congress with him in 2017 and joined the BJP in 2018. But he couldn’t stay long and exited the BJP within three months. In October 2022, Mahendrasinh Vaghela, who last won the state election from Bayad assembly seat in 2012, rejoined the Congress. The Congress fielded him from Bayad in 2022 but he lost to the BJP.
The BJP won 156 of Gujarat’s 182 assembly seats in the 2022 election, its highest-ever tally. Its strength has since risen to 162 through defections and by-election victories. The Congress, which won only 17 seats in 2022, now only has 12 MLAs.
To be sure, Vaghela had been with the BJP till 1995 when he formed the Rashtriya Janata Party and became Gujarat chief minister with Congress’s support in 1996. The RJP later merged with the Congress.
Amit Dholakia, head of the department of political science at MS University in Vadodara, said Vaghela’s political experience could help the Congress rebuild in parts of central and eastern Gujarat, including the tribal belt, but his return would also bring organisational challenges.
His return, for one, could add another layer to the Congress’s internal factionalism, particularly when it is time to distribute tickets during the elections likely to be held by the end of 2027. “His entry could add one more faction to the existing groups. It might be difficult to manage the internal factions over tickets,” he said.
Dholakia also wondered whether Vaghela could translate his political profile into votes, saying his 2022 political venture had not made a significant electoral impact. Instead, his political style could create difficulties within the party. “Existing functionaries might find it difficult to adjust to his style of functioning,” Dholakia said.
For Vaghela, Dholakia said, a return to the Congress would provide a platform to remain politically relevant, but he did not expect it to have a major electoral impact in the 2027 assembly election.
Ghanshyam Shah, a political scientist and retired professor of Jawaharlal Nehru University, doubts if Vaghela’s return to the Congress would make a difference.
“I don’t think he has a large following. Whatever he had is already lost. He may not help the Congress much. My fear is that Vaghela, knowing what he has been, might end up creating problems for the Congress in Gujarat,” Shah said.
Shah said Vaghela’s reputation as a strategist should also be viewed against his record during his earlier association with the Congress when the party could not expand its support base despite having him as head of the state party unit. “He is a good strategist, but his previous strategies did not work for the Congress,” he said.