Delayed by sudden rains, monsoon likely to withdraw completely around Oct 26
Monsoon is likely to withdraw completely from the country around October 26 and simultaneously northeast monsoon is likely to commence over peninsular India, India Meteorological Department has said. Monsoon normally withdraws from the country around October 15.
After monsoon had withdrawn from most parts of the country around October 15 except a small part of east India, formation of two low pressure areas over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea led to widespread rain over east Odisha, West Bengal, Kerala and parts of northwest India, delaying monsoon withdrawal.
Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from remaining parts of Northeast India, West Bengal, Odisha; some parts of Central Bay of Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Central Arabian Sea; entire Goa and north Bay of Bengal around October 23.
With likely setting in of northeasterly winds in the lower tropospheric levels over Bay of Bengal and extreme south Peninsular India, monsoon is likely to withdraw from entire country around October 26. Simultaneously, the northeast monsoon rains are also likely to commence over southeast peninsular around October 26.
A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect Western Himalayan Region especially Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh between Friday to Sunday and adjoining plains of Northwest India on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated heavy rainfall with thunderstorm & lightning is likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Punjab on Saturday; over Himachal Pradesh on Sunday.
A cyclonic circulation is lying over Bihar & neighbourhood. Under its influence, fairly widespread, light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy fall and thunderstorms & lightning is very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Tripura, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on Thursday.
A cyclonic circulation is lying over south Tamil Nadu coast and neighbourhood and it is likely to persist during next 2-3 days. Under its influence, fairly widespread, heavy rain with thunderstorm and lightning is very likely over Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal and south interior Karnataka till Sunday. Isolated very heavy rain is also likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Thursday.