E-Paper
Haryana, J&K election results: How accurate were exit polls
The election results in Haryana have gone sharply against the predictions of the exit poll.
After the Lok Sabha elections, the election results in Haryana have gone sharply against the exit poll predictions, once again raising questions about their reliability.
The prediction of an easy win for the Congress in Haryana, went off-mark as the ruling BJP won 48 out of 90 seats in assembly, while the Congress managed to win 37 seats.
Bucking anti-incumbency, the ruling party in the state has retained power and halted the Congress' comeback attempt in the assembly elections, the results of which were announced Tuesday.
Also Read | Congress’s fatal flaw: Putting all eggs in Hooda basket
The party's performance surpassed even its 2014 breakthrough, when the BJP first came to power on its own.
In Jammu and Kashmir, exit polls had given an edge to the alliance of the Congress and the National Conference (NC), which, after results were declared emerged victorious with 48 seats.
While the NC emerged as the single largest party in Jammu Kashmir elections with 42 seats in 90 assembly constituencies. Its ally, the Congress, won 6 seats.
The BJP won 29 seats, while the People's Democratic Party (PDP) won 3. The Jammu and Kashmir People Conference, Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Aam Aadmi Party won one seat each, while Independent candidates bagged seven seats.
Also Read | Election results in numbers: How BJP, NC fared in vote share in Haryana, Kashmir polls
In the Kashmir region, the NC has increased the number of its MLAs from 15 to 42 between 2014 and 2024. The Congress’s number of MLAs has fallen from 12 in 2014 to 7 in 2024.
What had exit polls predicted exactly?
- The C-Voter-India Today polls gave Congress 50-58 seats and the BJP 20-28 seats in Haryana, while the Republic Bharat-Matrize polls put the Congress tally even higher at 55-62 seats as against the BJP's 18-24. In Jammu and Kashmir, the C-Voter-India Today survey put the National Conference-Congress alliance at 40-48 seats and the BJP at 27-32 seats in the 90-member assembly of the Union Territory.
- Peoples' Pulse exit poll gave the Congress 49-60 seats and the BJP 20-32 seats in Haryana. Most exit polls pegged the INLD's tally higher than that of the JJP, while others were seen getting up to 10 seats. Peoples' Pulse saw the NC-Congress alliance getting 46-50 seats as against the BJP's 23-27, while Republic-Gulistan put the NC-Congress tally at 31-36 as against the BJP's 28-30.
Also Read | MK Stalin congratulates Cong-NC alliance for victory in J&K polls: ‘It’s a mandate to…' - 'Dainik Bhaskar' predicted the Congress getting 44-54 seats and the BJP 15-29 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. Dainik Bhaskar pegged the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance at 35-40 and the BJP at 20-25 in Jammu and Kashmir, while Axis My India polls gave NC-Congress between 35 and 45 seats, the BJP in the range of 24-34 and others 4-10 seats.
