Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65% faster than they were a decade ago, with one-third of this glacier melt being primarily driven by black carbon, a new study has found. It found while 18% of Indian land is Himalayan, yet the region accounts for about 35% of disasters and contributes to over 20% of India’s GDP.
On current trajectories, the study, carried out by the global consultancy Systemiq, in collaboration with the Integrated Mountain Initiative and with contributions from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, stated that the Hindu Kush Himalayas could lose up to 80% of its present glacier volume by 2100.
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Experts cite contributing factors
“The heart of the challenge is a growth model putting pressure on Himalayan systems at three levels. Globally, warming created elsewhere is destabilising a cryosphere the region did not put at risk. Regionally, black carbon drifting up from the plains settles on the same glaciers, accelerating the melt driving today’s disasters, a lever, unlike global warming itself, the region and India can act on directly. Our research shows roughly a third of Himalayan glacier melt is driven by black carbon, largely from brick kilns in the plains, making this one of the few levers the region can pull now,” the report stated.
The report, came weeks after a glacial collapse led to deadly flash floods in Nepal, claiming at least 1,350 lives and leaving several hundreds still missing. It also flagged lack of surveillance, stating only around only 21, out of the nearly 40,000 estimated glaciers across the Hindukush Himalayan region are being monitored. This includes around 16-17 in India.
{{/usCountry}}The report, came weeks after a glacial collapse led to deadly flash floods in Nepal, claiming at least 1,350 lives and leaving several hundreds still missing. It also flagged lack of surveillance, stating only around only 21, out of the nearly 40,000 estimated glaciers across the Hindukush Himalayan region are being monitored. This includes around 16-17 in India.
{{/usCountry}}“Shocks are now unavoidable, but the region still lacks the intelligence needed to anticipate them. For example, only around 0.1% of the Himalaya’s estimated 40,000 glaciers are currently monitored, while permafrost, another critical source of instability, is even less understood. The priority is therefore to build the monitoring, early-warning and risk-mapping systems needed to anticipate hazards and guide smarter siting and preparedness before disaster strikes, rather than simply responding afterwards,” the report said.
It further said most Himalayan river basins are expected to reach “peak water”—the point at which glacier meltwater reaches its maximum before declining as the ice-reserve shrinks—around mid-century.
“This is expected across most Himalayan river basins by mid-century, with up to 80% of current glacier volume at risk by 2100,” it said.
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Suggested action steps
The report recommended a ten-fold action approach, including cutting soot across glacier-linked airsheds, bringing around 3 million hectares of fire-prone forest under year-round stewardship, restore and protect nearly half of the 3 million drying Himalayan springs and managing carrying capacity of tourists visiting the Himalayas. Other measures include putting hazard science before development approvals and moving from observation to active risk management
Pema Gyamtsho, director general at ICIMOD, said the the Hindu Kush Himalayan region is changing rapidly, with glaciers retreating, and permafrost and high-mountain slopes are becoming increasingly unstable. “Communities and infrastructure downstream face growing risks from complex and cascading hazards. This report makes a strong case for coordinated action, including bringing the private sector behind resilient action. Cross-border monitoring, shared risk information and early-warning systems, and joint investment in resilience are all becoming essential for safeguarding lives, livelihoods and economies across the region.”