The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report on Tuesday. The previous WEO was released in April this year, when the extent of the Covid-19 pandemic and ts economic implications were still being evaluated. The report gives the economic forecast on a host of indicators up to 2025. While these numbers are subject to revision even in the short-term horizon, it is worth comparing India’s post-pandemic economic trajectory with that of other South Asian countries -- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan -- and with China, the only emerging market economy that is bigger than India.
India’s post-Covid losses the biggest in South Asia
India’s GDP will contract by 10.3% this fiscal year, IMF has projected. This is the biggest contraction among the countries which have been selected here. Three other countries, Afghanistan (5%), Pakistan (0.4%) and Sri Lanka (4.6%) will also experience a contraction in GDP this year. India will only be the second country apart from Afghanistan, which will not be able to regain its 2019 GDP level even in 2021.
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Investment to suffer a sharp fall
Investment as a share of GDP had been falling in India even before the pandemic. This number had come down from 39.6% in 2011 to 29.7% in 2019. It is expected to fall to 27.8% in 2020 and will not cross the 31.7% level of 2018 until 2025. To be sure, all countries except Bhutan, China and Myanmar will experience a fall in investment-GDP ratios in 2020. 
Per capita GDP
{{/usCountry}}Per capita GDP
{{/usCountry}}While India’s per capita GDP (in current dollars) will fall below Bangladesh’s in 2020-21, it will overtake it marginally once again in 2021-22. India’s per capita GDP is significantly less than that of Bhutan and Sri Lanka in the South Asia region. With a dip in India’s per capita GDP trajectory, Bangladesh will enjoy almost similar per capita GDP levels as India’s up to 2025.