Incompatible models, infra shortage: Why IMD struggles with the weather

A working paper shows that relatively poorer countries such as India do better than richer countries in at least the seasonal forecasts of temperature.

That the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is far from reliable in predicting rain is well-known. Why this inaccuracy exists is something more perplexing. A recent paper by two environmental economists suggests that there are both non-material and material factors behind IMD’s weather struggles: existing weather models find it hard to simulate tropical weather and the lack of comparable infrastructure with richer countries adds to this disadvantage.

A working paper on weather forecast shows poorer countries are worse off than their richer peers in short-term predictions of temperature and rain. (RAJ K RAJ /HT PHOTO)

A newer version of the working paper called “Global inequalities in weather forecasts” by