The 2024 assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir is the first for the region after the erstwhile state was split (to carve out Ladakh) and downgraded to a UT after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The union territory also underwent delimitation in 2022 to redraw assembly constituency (AC) boundaries. Because the delimitation process was carried out under the BJP government, the obvious question to ask is whether this has brought electoral gains for the BJP?
Answering this question requires engaging with multiple questions.
How did delimitation change the composition of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly?
The number of assembly constituencies (ACs) in Jammu and Kashmir increased from 83 (excluding Ladakh) to 90 after delimitation. Six of the seven additional ACs were created in the Hindu-majority Jammu region, thus tilting the balance of power away from the Muslim-majority Kashmir region. Has this helped the BJP’s cause? Summary numbers suggest that it has.
The BJP won an identical number of ACs in the Jammu region in both 2014 and 2024 in terms of seat share, the numbers being 67.6% and 67.4%. It failed to open its account in the Kashmir region in both 2014 and 2024 elections. However, a bigger seat share for the Jammu region (44.6% in 2014 and 47.8% in 2024) means that its overall seat share in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly has now increased: from 30.1% in 2014 to 32.2% in 2024.
Even within the Jammu region, the BJP might have gained from delimitation
While Jammu is a Hindu-majority region overall, not all its districts have Hindus in the majority. Out of the ten districts in the Jammu region, only four have Hindus in majority while the remaining six districts are Muslim majority. How did delimitation change the distribution of ACs within these two kinds of districts in the Jammu region? The Hindu majority districts saw their AC count increase from 21 in 2014 to 24 in 2024. To be sure, even the non-Hindu majority districts saw an increase of three ACs: from 16 in 2014 to 19 in 2024.
{{/usCountry}}While Jammu is a Hindu-majority region overall, not all its districts have Hindus in the majority. Out of the ten districts in the Jammu region, only four have Hindus in majority while the remaining six districts are Muslim majority. How did delimitation change the distribution of ACs within these two kinds of districts in the Jammu region? The Hindu majority districts saw their AC count increase from 21 in 2014 to 24 in 2024. To be sure, even the non-Hindu majority districts saw an increase of three ACs: from 16 in 2014 to 19 in 2024.
{{/usCountry}}All four of the additional four ACs which the BJP has won between 2014 and 2024 have come from the Hindu majority districts.
To be sure, ruling parties resorting to gerrymandering during delimitation is not something which has happened for the first time in Jammu and Kashmir. Also, while the BJP has managed to increase its seat count marginally because of delimitation, it is still far from capturing majority in what is a clearly communally polarised polity of Jammu and Kashmir. However, this needs to be read with the fact that the BJP has also increased its vote share in the region from 23% in 2014 to 25.6% in 2024.