JMM-led alliance has the edge, say exit polls

Ranchi: Three exit polls gave the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led opposition alliance the upper hand over the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the staggered

Ranchi: Three exit polls gave the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led opposition alliance the upper hand over the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the staggered Jharkhand election after voting ended on Friday evening.

HT Image

Around 65.23% votes were polled in the five phases of the state election that began on November 30, and the result of which will be out on Monday, December 23.

An India Today Axis-My India exit poll predicted that the JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance could bag 38 to 50 seats in the 81-member Jharkhand assembly, compared to 22-32 for the BJP. The two other major parties in the fray -- All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) -- which contested all 81 seats were tipped to get 5-9 seats. The majority mark in the Jharkhand assembly is 42.

An exit poll by Kashish News, a local news channel in Jharkhand, predicted 37-49 seats for the JMM alliance, 25-30 for the BJP, 2-4 for the AJSU and the remaining for others.

A C-Voter-ABP News exit poll predicted a tighter race, giving the JMM-led alliance 31-39 seats and the BJP 28-36. The AJSU was forecast to win 3-7 seats and the JVM one to four. If this tally proves to be correct, the BJP could be in a position to form the government with the help of smaller parties.

JMM leader and face of the opposition alliance Hemant Soren expressed confidence about winning and said the result would be better than predicted by the exit polls. “There was strong resentment against chief minister Raghuvar Das as his government committed atrocities on the poor and there was total misgovernance,” he alleged.

Jharkhand Congress president Rameshwar Oraon said: “We will get majority on our own, but won’t mind if all parties ideologically against the BJP support us.”

Brushing aside these claims, Das said the BJP contested the polls unitedly and was confident of forming the next government. “You will find me smiling on December 23. Just wait,” he said. BJP general secretary Deepak Prakash said the trend in this election had clearly been to support a stable government and people had voted for the BJP.

The BJP and the AJSU have been traditional allies. The AJSU has shared power whenever the BJP has come to power in the state. In 2014, the two parties formed a pre-poll alliance that won a simple majority. Six of the eight legislators of the JVM later joined the BJP, which helped the Raghubar Das government complete its term without any threat from ally AJSU.

While the BJP and JMM are locked in a direct fight in this election, twice in the past both parties have formed governments in alliance. JMM chief Shibu Soren became chief minister with the BJP’s help after the 2009 election. However, the government fell five months later.

The two parties again came together when Arjun Munda became chief minister in 2010, with JMM working president Hemant Soren as his deputy. Soren pulled out of the government in 2012 and led the next government with support from the Congress and the RJD.

The five-phase Jharkhand assembly polls came to an end on Friday, with the final phase passing off peacefully across 16 constituencies in six districts registering 71.17% polling, a marginal decline of 2.14 % from the 2014 polls.

Chief electoral officer (CEO) Vinay Kumar Choubey said, “Polling remained peaceful in all five phases. Barring a few minor incidents, no untoward incident was recorded from any of the constituency.” Technical snags in electronic voting machines were reported from some booths but were not a major issue of concern, Choubey said.

A total of 1,216 candidates including 127 women and one from the third gender from 81 assembly constituencies spread across 24 districts were in the poll fray. Of the more than 23 million eligible voters, over 15 million voters turned up at polling stations to pick their legislators.

The ruling BJP is looking to keep Jharkhand in its fold after it swept the Lok Sabha elections and key states this year on the back of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity earlier this year. It had set itself a target of winning more than 65 seats in the 81-member assembly.

The BJP, which won 37 seats in the 2014 state election, contested 79 seats of 81 alone after its seat-sharing deal with the AJSU failed to materialise. The AJSU contested 53 seats and the party is hoping to emerge the kingmaker in government formation.

The opposition alliance contested all seats, with the JMM in the fray in 43, the Congress in 31 and the RJD in seven. Babulal Marandi, whose JVM broke away from the opposition just before the election, fielded party candidates in all 81 seats.

Political observer LK Kundan, also an associate professor of political science at Ranchi University, said the trend of the Lok Sabha polls in Jharkhand might not be repeated in the assembly polls. “The BJP and opposition’s alliance appeared to be in a tough contest. As per my view, the third and fourth phase of the Jharkhand polls will be the deciding factor in terms of forming the government,” Kundan said.

Kundan said he was not expected any major gains for the JVM and the AJSU. “The two parties might be key if the ruling party or the opposition alliance falls short of majority,” he said.