One of the biggest surprises in the Maharashtra elections is the complete political turnaround between the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly elections. The Maharashtra Vikas Agadi (MVA) won 30 out of the 48 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in the state in the Lok Sabha elections. It has won just 49 out of the 288 assembly constituencies (ACs) in the assembly elections. What explains this?
HT has already pointed out that the Lok Sabha seat share was not useful in understanding the nature of the contest in the assembly elections in the state. Vote share of the MVA and the Mahayuti was much closer even in the Lok Sabha, the respective numbers being 43.9% and 43.5%. In fact, even the seat share gap, once broken down at the AC-level was much smaller than the PC-wise numbers.
The biggest factor behind the assembly election results is the Mahayuti taking a massive lead in terms of vote share over the MVA, the respective numbers being 51.3% and 35.4% respectively. What created this vote share gap between the two alliances?
HT has compared AC-wise vote shares for Lok Sabha and assembly elections to explain this better. The MVA lost vote share between the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in 242 ACs while the Mahayuti gained vote share in 235 ACs between these two elections. In 121 ACs, the MVA’s loss of vote share was more than 10 percentage points, and it was more than five percentage points in 188 ACs. The Mahayuti gained more than 10 percentage points in terms of vote share in 73 ACs and more than five percentage points in 120 ACs. A sub-region wise analysis of change in vote shares shows that this is a pan-state phenomenon.
What role did the this change in vote share play in the results? Mahayuti increased its vote share in 138 ACs which it could not win in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and in 66 of them this increase was more than the victory margin. The MVA lost vote share in 141 ACs which it had won in the Lok Sabha elections and in all of them the change was more than the victory margin in the Lok Sabha.
{{/usCountry}}What role did the this change in vote share play in the results? Mahayuti increased its vote share in 138 ACs which it could not win in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and in 66 of them this increase was more than the victory margin. The MVA lost vote share in 141 ACs which it had won in the Lok Sabha elections and in all of them the change was more than the victory margin in the Lok Sabha.
{{/usCountry}}To be sure, Lok Sabha and assembly elections are different in nature and local factors and actors are more salient in the latter. What role did the local actors, who were aligned neither to the MVA nor the Mahayuti, play in these elections? The Non-MVA non-Mahayuti vote share increased and decreased in 121 and 167 ACs compared to the Lok Sabha elections.
Out of the 167 ACs where others saw a fall in vote share between the Lok Sabha and assembly elections, the MVA won 80 in the Lok Sabha and the Mahayuti 78. MVA’s vote share came down in 125 of these 167 ACs and the Mahayuti has won 144 of these in the assembly elections. This means that the Mahayuti gained at the cost of both the MVA and non-aligned actors.
Of the 121 ACs where others gained vote share between the Lok Sabha and assembly elections, the MVA won 73 while the Mahayuti did just 48 ACs in the Lok Sabha elections. The Mahayuti has gained vote share in 79 of these 121 ACs while the MVA has lost vote share in 117 of these. The Mahayuti has won 92 of these 121 ACs in the assembly elections while the MVA has managed to win just 26.
These numbers show that the Mahayuti’s landslide victory is a result of it winning voters from both the MVA and the non-aligned camp. The MVA on the other hand lost voters to both the Mahayuti and the fence sitters who were happy to support it during the Lok Sabha elections.