Southwest monsoon is likely to advance into south Andaman Sea, some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and the Nicobar Islands around May 19, two days before its normal onset date of May 22, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.
Thereon, the monsoon normally advances to Kerala around June 1 and further heads northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around July 15.
Monsoon showers between June and September are likely to be ‘above normal’ at 106% of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%, the IMD had said in its long-range forecast on April 15.
An updated forecast will be provided by IMD again in the last week of May, which may also have the probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the four homogenous regions of India (northwest India, central India, south Peninsula and northeast India), and the monsoon core zone (MCZ).
The LPA for the season as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm. Last year, monsoon was ‘below normal’ at 94.4% of LPA. IMD had however forecast a ‘normal’ monsoon last year at 96% of LPA, with an error margin of +/-4%. Before that, the 2022 monsoon was ‘above normal’ at 106% of LPA; 2021 recorded a ‘normal’ monsoon at 99% of LPA and 2020 monsoon was again ‘above normal’ at 109% of LPA.
A cyclonic circulation is lying over south interior Karnataka, and a trough is running from it to northwest Madhya Pradesh in lower tropospheric levels. Another cyclonic circulation is lying over Comorin area in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence, isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and squally winds (40-60kmph) very likely over Madhya Pradesh, the Vidarbha region, Chhattisgarh, central Maharashtra and the Marathwada region during the next five days and accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds (30-40kmph) very likely over Gujarat on May 14.
{{/usCountry}}A cyclonic circulation is lying over south interior Karnataka, and a trough is running from it to northwest Madhya Pradesh in lower tropospheric levels. Another cyclonic circulation is lying over Comorin area in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence, isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and squally winds (40-60kmph) very likely over Madhya Pradesh, the Vidarbha region, Chhattisgarh, central Maharashtra and the Marathwada region during the next five days and accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds (30-40kmph) very likely over Gujarat on May 14.
{{/usCountry}}Isolated hailstorm activity is also likely over Madhya Pradesh on May 14. Widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms, lightning and squally winds (40-50kmph) are very likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 7 days.
The IMD has also forecast a fresh spell of heat wave over northwest India starting May 16. There is likely to be a gradual rise by about 3-5 degrees Celsius in maximum temperatures over many parts of northwest and east India over the next five days.