The southwest monsoon is likely to begin withdrawing from India around September 19, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, as the country heads toward the end of a season that has left several major agricultural states with deep rainfall deficits unlikely to be erased.
The all-India monsoon deficit stood at 15% as of September 13, with the deficit particularly pronounced across the south peninsula and east and northeast India. Among the states facing deficits that are unlikely to recover are Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya, according to the data.
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The monsoon normally begins withdrawing from west Rajasthan around September 17. This year, the process is expected to begin around September 19, although parts of the country will see significant rain activity before then. Last year, withdrawal began on September 14.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, 2026,” the IMD said in a statement.
Varying deficit range across country
{{/usCountry}}“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, 2026,” the IMD said in a statement.
Varying deficit range across country
{{/usCountry}}The withdrawal forecast comes as the monsoon prepares to exit after a season in which a sharp deficit early in the season was partly offset by widespread July rainfall. The all-India deficit had reached 40% in June before falling to 13% by the end of July. It was 14% at the end of August and stood at 15% as of September 13.
The season has also been affected by a strengthening El Niño, which typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over India, although its impact has varied significantly across regions.
The deficit is highest in the south peninsula at 28%, followed by east and northeast India at 25%. It stands at 6% in central India and 10% in northwest India.
Among the states with the largest deficits are Meghalaya at 59%, Andhra Pradesh at 43%, Arunachal Pradesh at 42%, Punjab at 40%, Bihar at 35%, Karnataka at 29%, Kerala at 27%, Tamil Nadu at 26%, Rajasthan at 25%, Haryana at 23% and Telangana at 20%.
Isolated spells of rainfall
The IMD has forecast another spell of widespread rainfall across several parts of the country this week, particularly in the west, northwest and parts of the south peninsula. Fairly widespread rain is expected over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad from September 15-17, and over Punjab, Haryana and Delhi on September 16-17. West and east Rajasthan are likely to see isolated rainfall during September 15-17, while Uttar Pradesh is expected to receive isolated to scattered rain until September 18.
In the south, isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until September 20, Kerala and Mahe until September 16, south Karnataka on September 15, and coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from September 18-20. Central India is expected to see isolated showers over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha until September 20. Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over West Bengal and Sikkim until September 20, Bihar on September 16-17 and Odisha on September 19-20.
The weather systems driving this activity include a low-pressure area over southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat, a trough extending across Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal near Odisha and West Bengal.
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The IMD had forecast on August 31 that September rainfall was likely to be below normal, at less than 91% of the long-period average (LPA). This followed a revised forecast by private forecaster Skymet Weather on August 17, which projected seasonal rainfall at 85% of LPA and assigned a 70% probability to a drought. Its initial forecast in April had put rainfall at 94% of LPA. In April, the IMD forecast the monsoon at 92% of LPA. It revised that forecast to 90% in June and put the probability of a deficient season at 60%.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at Skymet, said conditions were favourable for the monsoon’s withdrawal to begin this week. “We expect it to happen by September 20. Some decent rain is likely in the region before that,” he said.