On Tuesday, Shiv Sena (UBT) lawmaker Sanjay Raut and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) announced a rally in Mumbai’s Worli on Saturday to celebrate the state government’s move to scrap the decision to introduce Hindi as the third language in schools from class 1. The move came days after Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and his estranged cousin, MNS chief Raj Thackeray, announced a protest against the “Hindi imposition”.
Raut and MNS posted an invitation for the rally on behalf
On Tuesday, Shiv Sena (UBT) lawmaker Sanjay Raut and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) announced a rally in Mumbai’s Worli on Saturday to celebrate the state government’s move to scrap the decision to introduce Hindi as the third language in schools from class 1. The move came days after Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and his estranged cousin, MNS chief Raj Thackeray, announced a protest against the “Hindi imposition”.
Raut and MNS posted an invitation for the rally on behalf of the cousins addressed to “Marathi mothers, sisters and brothers”, who forced the government to “bow down”. “As such, the victory should be celebrated,” the invitation said. The first such joint invitation is seen as a major development in Maharashtra’s politics amid the talk about the reconciliation of the cousins.
In April, Raj Thackeray spoke about uniting with his cousin in the interest of Marathis. He said that he had no issues working with Uddhav Thackeray in the undivided Shiv Sena and that, for a bigger cause, their issues were trivial. At a separate event, Uddhav Thackeray said he was ready to put aside trivial fights. He appealed to everyone to come together for the sake of the Marathi people.
Raj Thackeray quit the undivided Shiv Sena in January 2006, blaming Uddhav Thackeray for promoting him to do so. He formed the MNS, which won 13 seats in the 2009 assembly elections. The MNS’s performance has since been dismal. It failed to win any seats in the 2024 assembly polls.
The long wait
The Saturday rally has enthused the Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS rank-and-file. The cousins have deputed three-four leaders to work out the arrangements for the rally. The leaders from the two parties, who often criticised, taunted each other publicly, are now reposting each other’s posts on social media.
The reconciliation has been speculated since Eknath Shinde split Shiv Sena in 2022 by winning over a majority of its lawmakers. The 2024 assembly election is seen as a turning point in accelerating the efforts for it. The Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar alliance did well in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, winning 31 out of 48 seats. But the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance returned to power with a thumping majority in the state six months later.
The Shiv Sena (UBT) could win just 20 seats. Shinde’s faction bagged 57 seats and aggressively poached the remaining Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders, making its revival difficult.
The MNS had a third disappointing assembly election in a row. After campaigning for the BJP and rooting for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha elections, Raj Thackeray expected to be part of the ruling alliance. The BJP has been wary of a backlash from its North Indian voters if the MNS joined its alliance. The MNS campaigned against North Indian migrants about a decade ago.
A seat adjustment with the MNS did not work out. To make matters worse, Raj Thackeray’s son, Amit, lost his debut election from Mahim in a triangular contest as Shinde refused to withdraw his candidate.
People aware of the matter said the cousins were suggested to join hands and return to the time-tested “justice for sons of the soil” formula against the backdrop of their dismal performances. Shiv Sena founder late Bal Thackeray used the formula effectively.
The speculation about the reconciliation intensified in April after Raj Thackeray’s podcast with filmmaker Mahesh Manjrekar. “I am willing to keep aside petty disputes for the interest of Marathi pride and Maharashtra,” he said. Uddhav Thackeray reacted positively hours later.
Raj Thackeray chose silence afterward, leading to suspicion in the Shiv Sena (UBT) whether he meant what he had said. His meeting with chief minister Devendra Fadnavis on June 12 more or less confirmed the suspicions that the MNS chief may back out.
The opportunity
As the enthusiasm about the reunion was dying down, the June 17 order, making Hindi a mandatory third language, revived the efforts for the reconciliation. The Thackeray cousins objected to the decision and announced their agitation separately.
Raj Thackeray’s first phone call to Raut in 20 years on June 27 changed everything. Raut said Raj Thackeray called him and said that it would not be good if two separate marches were organised. He added that he immediately met Uddhav Thackeray and told him about the phone call. Raut said Uddhav Thackeray immediately accepted the proposal, saying they need to show the unity of Marathis.
The Marathi language has always been a sensitive issue, as Maharashtra was formed on the linguistic lines. The politics of Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS are rooted in Marathi identity. The emotive issue of Marathi pride has been the focus of both parties.
The cousins are banking on Marathi identity and the fight against the “Hindi imposition” to reclaim their political space ahead of the local polls, especially to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), after their poor performance in the assembly election.
Political analyst Padmabhushan Deshpande said both were weighing the pros and cons of joining forces ahead of the civic polls to be held later this year. “It seems the BJP is in a better position to win the Mumbai civic body, which has been a source of power and strength for the undivided Sena for over two decades.”
Deshpande said the BJP is confident about a majority of non-Marathi votes in Mumbai, which are numerically more than Marathis, who are barely one-third of the city now. “If the BJP wins the BMC, it will be the end of Marathi vote-based politics of both Uddhav and Raj Thackeray in Mumbai. As such, it is their political need to come together and retain their political space.”
Deshpande said if they come together, there could be a consolidation of Marathi votes not just in Mumbai but also in neighbouring cities in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, which has seven municipal corporations.
Analysts and leaders from both parties think it is too early to say whether the reunion will have an impact. “We are still not sure. Until recently, Raj was hobnobbing with Fadnavis and Shinde. Some of our leaders are still sceptical whether he would align with Uddhav or change track at the eleventh hour,” said a Shiv Sena (UBT) leader. “In the past, Raj faced an ED [Enforcement Directorate] probe in connection with the purchase of a defunct mill land in Dadar. What is the guarantee he would not get pressurised if the central agencies probe his transactions?”
Raj Thackeray’s aides acknowledged that things are at a nascent stage. “Agreed, the two cousins are coming together, but the road further is not smooth. Both parties have the same voter base. The areas of influence are also the same. It all boils down to elections. How will we divide the seats?” asked an MNS leader.
To prevent any hype, the two parties are maintaining that the Saturday rally would be apolitical. “We are talking about the fight of the Marathi people against the imposition of Hindi. In the future, anything can happen,” said Arvind Sawant, Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesman. “Of course, there is enthusiasm among the people as well as the cadre of both parties.”
Political analyst Hemant Desai said the two sides are being cautious. “They are talking about the Marathi people and the language row. I guess that they will take a call on reunion after watching the response the rally gets and the reactions of the people.”
Deshpande said the spectacle of the Thackeray cousins coming together and campaigning together could have an impact on the Marathi voter. “It would impact the political calculations of the BJP-led ruling alliance. It is unclear how much damage they will suffer in the elections if the cousins join forces.”
Deshpande said there could be a triangular contest as the Congress has said it would not have any alliance with the MNS.
BJP leaders maintained they do not have to worry since it is not the Marathi vote bank that the party banks on. “North Indians and Gujarati-speaking voters together outnumber the Marathi-speaking population in Mumbai. These two sections are largely with us,” said a BJP minister, who did not want to be named.
“We also have significant support among Marathi-speaking people due to reasons, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and our stand on Hindutva.” The minister said there will be some hype, but it would not affect the BJP’s calculations. “There could be some damage to the Shinde-led Sena as traditional votes could get consolidated, but that is not our worry.”
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