The fertility rate (TFR) in rural India has dropped to the critical level of 2.1 children per woman for the first time — the demographic threshold at which births just balance deaths to maintain stable population levels — according to new government data released on Wednesday, which also showed that the overall TFR in the country is now, for the first time, slipped below 2 to 1.9.
The 2023 Sample Registration System (SRS) report on Wednesday also showed that the country’s death continue to be above levels seen right before the pandemic.
The TFR decline marks a milestone where a decades-long fertility decline has now brought rural India in line with global demographic trends. If TFR holds at this value -- known as the replacement level -- rural populations will eventually stabilise rather than grow.
Rural TFR had remained stagnant at 2.2 from 2020 to 2022 before dropping to the replacement threshold in 2023. Urban areas, where fertility fell below 2.1 more than twenty years ago, recorded a TFR of 1.5 in 2023, down from 1.6 where it had been stagnant from 2020 to 2022.
This transition comes against the backdrop of stubbornly high death rates that have failed to return to pre-Covid levels. India’s crude death rate (CDR) stood at 6.4 per thousand people in 2023, down from 6.8 in 2022 but still above the 6.0 recorded in both 2019 and 2020.
The last time India saw a CDR of 6.4 or higher before the pandemic was in 2016.
{{/usCountry}}The last time India saw a CDR of 6.4 or higher before the pandemic was in 2016.
{{/usCountry}}The death rate had spiked to 7.5 in 2021 during the second wave of the pandemic, leading to an estimated two million excess deaths based on SRS calculations.
Rural areas have shown better recovery—with CDR falling from 7.9 in 2021 to 7.2 in 2022 and 6.8 in 2023, compared to 6.4 in 2020. The last time rural areas recorded a CDR as high as 2023 was in 2017 when the number was 6.9.
Urban death rates have recovered more slowly, standing at 5.7 in 2023, down from 6.0 in 2022 and 6.6 in 2021, but still above the pre-pandemic level of 5.1 in 2020. The last time cities recorded a 5.7 CDR was in 2011, and this slower urban recovery is holding back overall normalisation of death rates.
Understanding the reasons behind persistent high mortality remains challenging due to patchy data on causes of death. The SRS relies on verbal autopsies based on symptoms reported by family members, and the latest three-year averages for deaths from fever of unknown origins and respiratory infections, while lower than 2020-22, remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
The delayed 2021 census—now postponed to 2026—may be affecting the accuracy of population estimates used in calculating these rates, potentially making the SRS sample less representative. The Office of the Registrar General of India, which releases the SRS based on sample surveys, is considered the most authoritative source on fertility and mortality indicators.
Intriguingly, the age groups most affected by persistent above-normal death rates are those aged 5 to 39 years, and there is no conclusive evidence linking this to long-Covid effects compared to older populations.
The fertility decline has, expectedly, been accompanied by falling birth rates, with the crude birth rate dropping to 18.4 per thousand in 2023 from 19.1 in 2022. Rural birth rates fell to 20.3 from 20.8, while urban rates declined to 14.9 from 15.5.
The SRS report released on Wednesday is the third annual release this year and forms the basis for population projections in the absence of updated census data.