‘Tauktae’ likely to be an intense cyclone as oceanic conditions favourable, warn scientists

Tauktae meaning gecko (named by Myanmar) will be the first cyclone of this year. Once formed Cyclone Tauktae can strengthen further very rapidly as all atmospheric conditions are favouring its rapid intensification.
By Saturday morning the well-marked low-pressure area is likely to concentrate into a depression and it is very likely to intensify further and move north north-westwards towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coasts and reach the Gujarat coast around May 18 evening. (Image used for representation). (PTI PHOTO.)
By Saturday morning the well-marked low-pressure area is likely to concentrate into a depression and it is very likely to intensify further and move north north-westwards towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coasts and reach the Gujarat coast around May 18 evening. (Image used for representation). (PTI PHOTO.)
Published on May 13, 2021 06:32 PM IST
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ByJayashree Nandi

A low pressure area has formed over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area on Thursday. It is very likely to become well marked over Lakshadweep by Friday and gradually intensify into cyclonic storm Tauktae on May 16.

Once formed Cyclone Tauktae can strengthen further very rapidly as all atmospheric conditions are favouring its rapid intensification.

“We cannot rule out intensification similar to Super Cyclone Amphan. At present it is difficult to say which category of intensification the cyclone will reach. But conditions are extremely favourable for its rapid intensification. Ocean heat potential is above normal; sea surface temperatures are 1-2 degree C above normal and Madden Julian Oscillation is also favouring rapid intensification. We should be prepared,” said Sunitha Devi, in-charge of cyclones at India Meteorological Department.

“MJO is a wave type of propagation west to east across the globe which causes cloudiness and changes in wind direction,” explained Sunitha adding that it is difficult to predict the exact landfall location immediately. “There will be major influence on the Gujarat coast as this is a large and intense system. We are still studying the landfall location possibilities.”

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is characterised by a band of rain clouds moving across the tropics, depending on their location they can assist cyclone build up, she explained.

Tauktae meaning gecko (named by Myanmar) will be the first cyclone of this year.

By Saturday morning the well-marked low-pressure area is likely to concentrate into a depression over the same region and intensify into a cyclone during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to intensify further and move north north-westwards towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coasts and reach near Gujarat coast around May 18 evening.

Light to moderate rain with extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) is likely over Lakshadweep on May 13 and 14; over Kerala on May 13; over ghat areas of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka on May 15. It is likely rain on May 13, 14, 15, 16 and 17 in all these places.

In Konkan and Goa, light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely on May 15 and heavy to very heavy falls at a few places on May 16 and 17. In Gujarat, rainfall activity is very likely to commence from May 17 with significant increase during the subsequent 2 days and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Saurashtra and Kutch on May 18 and 19.

Sea condition over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep - Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean is likely to be rough to very rough on May 13 and 14. Over east central Arabian Sea its likely to be very rough to high (wave height of 6-9 metres/ wind speed 34-47 knots) on May 15 and high to very high (wave height of 9-14 metres/wind speed of 38-63) on May 16 and over northeast Arabian Sea from May 18. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along and off Kerala coast on May 14 and 15, very rough to High over east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast on May 15 and Maharashtra – Goa coasts on May 15 and 16. It is very likely to be very rough to High over northeast Arabian Sea along and off south Gujarat coast from May 17 morning. Tidal wave of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Lakshadweep Islands on May 15 and 16.

Fishermen out in the deep sea are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas from May 13, east central Arabian Sea along and off Karnataka coast from May 14, into east central Arabian Sea and along and off Maharashtra – Goa coasts from May 15 and into east central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea along and off Gujarat coast from May 17.

“Both ocean and atmospheric conditions are conducive for cyclone formation. The ocean temperature and heat content are warmer than normal. The SSTs are in the range of 30 to 31 degree C in the north Indian Ocean. That’s an anomaly of 1-2 degree C over some regions. Normally SSTs should be 28 to 30 degree C,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

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Monday, June 27, 2022