Uncertainty looms over Grand Alliance seat deal

The Opposition Grand Alliance in Bihar faces a seat-sharing deadlock, with overlapping nominations causing discontent among allies ahead of upcoming elections.

At the heart of the Opposition Grand Alliance’s Bihar seat-sharing deadlock are at least eight contentious seats and growing discontent among the allies over proposed seat swaps, people familiar with the matter said on Saturday.

Voting will take place on November 6 and 11 (HT)

Till Saturday night, there was no clarity about exactly what the break-up of seats in the Grand Alliance would look like at the time of going to print.

According to people familiar with the matter, the seats in contention are Lalganj, Vaishali, Rajapakar, Rosera, Biharsharif, Bachhwara, Tarapur, Kahalgaon. Seat-sharing talks for Jaley and Kutumba are still on among the INDIA bloc allies as both the RJD and the Congress have given symbols to their nominees for the two seats.

In Lalganj, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has fielded Shivani Shukla, daughter of former MLA Munna Shukla, while the Congress has nominated Aditya Kumar Raja. A similar situation has emerged in Vaishali, where RJD’s Ajay Kushwaha is up against Congress’s Sanjeev Singh.

In Rajapakar, the Congress has fielded Pratima Kumari against Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation (CPI-ML) nominee Mohit Paswan. In Rosera, the Congress has fielded BK Ravi, while the Communist Party of India (CPI) has named Lakshman Paswan.

Biharsharif, too, is witnessing a direct contest between the partners, with both Congress’s Umer Khan and CPI’s Shiv Prasad Yadav, popularly known as Sardarji, filing nominations for the seat. In Bachhwara, Congress nominee Prakash Das is up against CPI’s Awadhesh Kumar Rai, while RJD’s Arun Sah is in direct contest with VIP candidate Sakaldeo Bind in Tarapur. In Kahalgaon, RJD’s Rajnish Yadav is pitted against Congress’s Praveen Singh Kushwaha.

In Kutumba, state Congress chief Rajesh Ram accused RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav of “sabotaging” the alliance. While Ram is a sitting MLA contesting from the SC-reserved seat, the RJD has named Suresh Paawan as its candidate from the seat, which will go to vote in the second phase. Both Ram and Paawan have not filed their nominations, and the RJD has not released an official candidate list.

Till Friday, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)’s Mukesh Sahani had announced on X that his party would contest 15 seats, the Congress has named its candidates on 54 of the state’s 243 seats. The RJD, which had been informally allotting its symbols to hopefuls, filed nominations in at least 60 seats. The last date for withdrawal of nominations for the first phase is October 20, and for the second phase, it is October 23. Voting will take place on November 6 and 11, with the results scheduled for November 14.

While there is no formal announcement on the seat-sharing deal, some of the leaders have also alleged faulty seat swaps.

In Darbhanga, RJD district president Uday Shankar Yadav said that, in many seats, the NDA has got a “walkover” due to faulty swapping of seats. “Hayaghat seat has been given to CPIM even as it is our traditional seat. We did a lot of work in the area -- a padayatra for a month, roping in 150 workers, and distributing 185,000 leaflets on “Mai Bahin Maan Yojana.”

Another RJD leader, Govind Ram, said that Bahadurpur should have been given to CPI(M) due to EBC and Dalit votes, but it has been given to the RJD.

While the seat adjustment of Mahagathbandhan in first phase is yet to be sorted out, intense bargaining is going on between RJD and VIP for the second phase seats.

According to a senior Congress leader, the RJD is reluctant to give any seat to VIP for the second phase and might consider a friendly fight in some seats against the party.

The overlapping nominations expose the INDIA bloc’s struggle to reconcile local ambitions with the broader political strategy. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, some of the leaders have admitted that negotiations over several seats remained deadlocked till the final hours, leading to multiple candidates from within the alliance filing papers.

“While national leaders have maintained a show of unity, the ground reality suggests otherwise. Such intra-alliance contests could blunt the opposition’s electoral edge. This is a classic case of coordination failure. These overlaps may lead to division of votes, making it easier for the ruling alliance to retain or capture these seats,” said a senior Congress leader, asking not to be named.

The INDIA bloc had positioned itself as a united front to challenge the ruling Nitish Kumar-led NDA dispensation in Bihar. But with polling day nearing, its inability to enforce discipline at the constituency level is threatening to undercut that narrative. How the alliance manages these internal rivalries in the coming weeks could play a crucial role in shaping the outcome.