The depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal has intensified into cyclonic storm, Yaas, and is likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm (wind speed of 118 to 166 kmph) during the subsequent 24 hours, according to India Meteorological Department.
Yaas would continue to move north-northwestwards, intensify further and reach northwest Bay of Bengal near north Odisha and West Bengal coasts by Wednesday morning. It is very likely to cross north Odisha -West Bengal coasts between Paradip and Sagar islands by Wednesday evening as a very severe cyclonic storm.
Though oceanic and atmospheric conditions over Bay of Bengal are favourable for intensification of Yaas, experts hope it will not intensify to an extremely severe cyclone because it has formed close to the coast and has less time over the unusually warm ocean.
“The north Bay of Bengal where the cyclone is forming, is very warm, with the temperatures reaching up to 32 degrees Celsius (°C), 1-2°C above normal. The subsurface ocean heat content is also warm and conducive for the system to intensify into a cyclone. However, since the distance between the location of cyclogenesis and landfall is short, the cyclone won’t spend much time over the ocean. This will prevent it from intensifying to an extremely severe cyclone. In contrast, Cyclone Tauktae spent several days in the Arabian Sea, drawing the energy in the form of heat and moisture from the warm waters below. We won’t see this happening for cyclone Yaas,” said Matthew Roxy Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
Also Read | How India is bracing for another ‘severe cyclonic storm’ Yaas
{{/usCountry}}Also Read | How India is bracing for another ‘severe cyclonic storm’ Yaas
{{/usCountry}}“#CycloneYaas will become the second intense tropical cyclone (severe cyclonic storm or above as per the IMD scale) to have formed to the north of 15°N latitude & west of 88°E longitude in the month of May since 1980. Previously, Cyclone Aila had formed over this region in 2009,” tweeted Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist and researcher at the University of Reading, England.
“Since tropical cyclones generally form further to the south over the Bay of Bengal, #CycloneYaas will become the most intense tropical cyclone that formed so close to #Odisha & #WestBengal coasts in the month of May since 1980 & made landfall over these regions,” he added.
A comparatively shorter time over sea could prevent Yaas from intensifying into an extremely severe cyclone (wind speed of 167-221 kmph) or a super cyclone (over 222 kmph), said IMD scientists but did not rule out the possibility of further intensification.
“Comparatively, its time over sea is less. Fani had formed over Andaman Sea, Amphan also formed towards south. After Aila, this is probably the first to be comparatively closer to coast. The landfall location of Yaas will be slightly to the west compared to Amphan which made landfall over Sunderbans,” said Sunitha Devi, in charge, cyclones at IMD.
She said warm waters of Bay of Bengal could still provide a lot of energy to Yaas for further intensification. Taking a more intense form cannot be ruled out at the moment, she added.
Over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on May 23 and 24. Over Odisha, light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over north coastal districts on May 25, heavy to very heavy rains at a few places with extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) in Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Mayurbhanj and heavy to very heavy falls at a few places in the districts of north Odisha namely Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Jajpur and Keonjhar on May 26. Over West Bengal and Sikkim, light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places; heavy to very heavy rainfall over Medinipur, south and north 24 Parganas, Howrah and Hooghly districts on May 25, extremely heavy rainfall (over 20 cm) at isolated places over Jhargram, Medinipur, north and south 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Nadia, Bardhaman, Bankura, Purulia, Bhirbhum and heavy rain at isolated places over Murshidabad, Malda and Dakshin Dinajpur Districts on May 26. Extremely heavy rain is likely at some places in Malda and Darjeeling.
Squally wind speed reaching 45–55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to prevail over and around Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Andaman Sea and adjoining eastcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal on May 23. It is very likely to increase becoming 55–65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea from Monday. Wind speed is very likely to increase further becoming gale wind speed reaching 65 to 75 gusting to 85 over major parts of central Bay of Bengal from Monday forenoon for subsequent 12 hours and would decrease gradually thereafter.
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph is very likely to prevail over North Bay of Bengal and along and off Odisha – West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts from May 24 evening. It would increase gradually becoming 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph from 25th evening. It would further increase becoming gale wind speed 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph from May 26 early morning along and off West Bengal and adjoining north Odisha and Bangladesh coasts. It would gradually increase further becoming 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph from May 26 forenoon and increase till evening.
Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Andaman Sea and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal on May 23 and 24, high to very high /phenomenal (up to 14 metres high waves and wind speeds up to 64 knots) are likely over major parts of central Bay of Bengal, north Bay of Bengal and along and off Odisha – West Bengal - Bangladesh coasts during May 24 to 26.
Tidal waves of 1- 2 meter height are very likely to inundate low lying areas of Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 23 and 24.