Widespread rainfall in east-central India in next 3-4 days: IMD
Monsoon rain in July and August has been concentrated over central and peninsular India mainly because the monsoon trough has remained south of its normal position
East-central India is expected to witness intense and widespread rainfall during the next 3-4 days owing to development of a depression over north Bay of Bengal, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
Monsoon rain in July and August has been concentrated over central and peninsular India mainly because the monsoon trough has remained south of its normal position and cyclonic circulations have also formed slightly to the south of head Bay of Bengal.
The depression over BoB was about 310km east-southeast of Balasore (Odisha), 250km east-southeast of Digha (West Bengal) and 210km east-southeast of Sagar Islands on Friday morning.
It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during the next 6 hours.
It is likely to cross West Bengal and Odisha coast between Balasore & Sagar Islands today evening.
After landfall it would continue to move west-northwestwards across north Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand towards north Chhattisgarh and weaken gradually.
The depression is expected to traverse central India bringing heavy rain to Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh but not to Uttar Pradesh leading to concerns that the Indo-Gangetic Plains that have been largely dry since July will continue to remain dry in August also.
There is presently 9% excess rain over the country with 27% excess over peninsular India; 24% excess over central India; 1% excess over northwest India and 19% excess over east and northeast India. There is a 49% rain deficiency over east Uttar Pradesh; 42% over west Uttar Pradesh; 42% over Bihar; 38% over Gangetic West Bengal and 37% over Jharkhand.
In August, there is 11.8% excess rain over the country; 39% excess over central India; 25.7% excess over peninsular India; 6.4% deficiency over northwest India and 32% deficiency over east and northeast India.
“We are expecting heavy rain over Odisha on August 19 and 20; over Chhattisgarh on August 19, 20 and 21and Madhya Pradesh on August 20, 21 and 22. Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand may also get some rain. Due to another low pressure system over southeast Pakistan, Saurashtra and Kutch are also likely to receive heavy rain. Over northwest India we do not expect any major rain,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
The low pressure area over north BoB is the fourth low pressure system in August.
A low pressure area has formed over northeast and adjoining areas of eastcentral Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts on Thursday and persisted over the same region. It is very likely to move northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by Friday morning over north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal & Bangladesh coasts. Thereafter, it is likely to move west-northwestwards across Gangetic West Bengal, North Odisha, Jharkhand and North Chhattisgarh.
A well marked low pressure area is also lying over southeast Pakistan. It is very likely to continue to move westnorthwestwards and weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.
The western end of the monsoon trough is likely to shift to north of its normal position from Friday onwards and remain so during next 2-3 days while eastern end is likely to be along normal or south of the normal position during the same period, IMD said.
Under the influence of these systems, widespread, moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rain and thunderstorm or lightning is very likely over Odisha during August 18 to 20; Gangetic West Bengal on August 18 and 19; Jharkhand on August 19 and 20; Vidarbha on August 20 and 21; Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh during August 19 and 21 and over West Madhya Pradesh during August 20 to 22.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely over West Bengal and Sikkim on August 19; Vidarbha, Jharkhand and Odisha on August 20; East Madhya Pradesh on August 21 and over West Madhya Pradesh on August 22.
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall (over 20cm) is also likely over north Odisha on August 19; north Chhattisgarh & East Madhya Pradesh on August 20 and over West Madhya Pradesh on August 21. Widespread, moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rain and thunderstorm or lightning is very likely over West Rajasthan and Gujarat from August 18 to 22; East Rajasthan, Konkan and Goa during August 20 and 22 and over ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra on August 21 and 22.
Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over East Rajasthan on August 21 and 22. Widespread, moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rain and thunderstorm/lightning is very likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab on August 20; Uttarakhand on August 19 and 20; Himachal Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh during August 19 to 21; south Haryana on August 21 and over East Uttar Pradesh on August 19 and 20.