Even as the SP-BSP-RLD alliance is going all out to upset the saffron party’s apple cart, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will look forward to retaining all the eight parliamentary seats of west Uttar Pradesh that will go to polls in the first phase of Lok Sabha elections on Thursday.
All eyes will be on Muslim votes which will play a crucial role in elections. The BJP faces a stiff challenge from the arithmetically formidable alliance of the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal in all the eight Lok Sabha seats that have sizeable chunk of areas having concentration of minority population.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won all the eight seats: Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddh Nagar.
Besides Modi wave, communal polarisation in the aftermath of 2013 Muzaffarnagar violence was considered a major factor for the BJP’s sweep that had secured 42.63 per cent votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
But this time, elections will be different as there is no undercurrent in favour of any party and the alliance of opposition parties has given a new political and social dimension.
Elections in west UP are largely fought on communal lines but this time votes are also divided in favour of and against Narendra Modi.
{{/usCountry}}Elections in west UP are largely fought on communal lines but this time votes are also divided in favour of and against Narendra Modi.
{{/usCountry}}The BJP is pushing the issue of nationalism to garner support from all sections.
With the combined vote share of 42.98 per cent (in 2014 polls), the SP-BSP-RLD alliance is countering the BJP by listing the government’s failures.
The Congress, with a share of 7.53 per cent in the previous election, is being considered a small player in west UP.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister Yogi Adityanath have led the campaigns for the BJP, BSP chief Mayawati, SP president Akhilesh Yadav and RLD chief Ajit Singh have led the alliance’s campaign in the region.
Though the rally of Congress president Rahul Gandhi, scheduled in Shamli, Saharanpur and Bijnor, had to be cancelled due to bad weather on April 8, party general secretary for east UP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra held road shows in Bijnor and Saharanpur on the last day of campaigning on Tuesday.
Priyanka’s campaign has enthused the partymen and generated a buzz in Congress’s favour in pockets where the party has considerable support. Any gain for Congress in terms of votes may make the contest triangular.
The case of Congress candidate from Saharanpur Imran Masood is one such example.
In 2014, Masood had secured 4,07,909 votes against BJP’s Raghav Lakhan Pal (4,72,999 votes). Masood is considered a strong contender because of his personal support base in the constituency.
Keeping in view the support that Masood enjoys, BSP president Mayawati had to urge Muslims not to let the community’s votes split. A likely split in votes of Muslim community may give the BJP a bit of breather at some places.
Communal polarisation may also be advantageous to the BJP and its leaders have been making attempts to do so this time around.
Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UP CM Yogi Adityanath have targeted Masood in their public meetings. “Here we have a candidate who talked of “Boti Boti” (cutting into pieces) and Congress’s shahzada (a reference to Rahul Gandhi) likes him. They talk of “Boti Boti” and we speak about “Beti Beti” (daughters),” the PM had said while addressing a rally on April 5.
Referring to Masood as the son-in-law of Pakistan-based terrorist Azhar Masood, Adityanath alleged that he spoke the language of terrorists.
“Now, you will have to decide whether you want to elect a candidate who speaks Azhar Masood’s language or Modi ji’s lieutenant Raghav Lakhanpal who will ensure development of all,” Yogi had said.
A sizeable chunk of Muslims had turned up for the Congress rally in Kairana on Monday. Priyanka’s road show in Ghaziabad and Bijnor also attracted large crowds.
Yet, the focus will be on Muslim vote that appears to be divided.
Former head of the department of political science at Lucknow University Prof SK Dwivedi said: “Muslim votes are getting divided between the alliance and the Congress. Mayawati’s appeal to the community against any division of votes has not made much impact and this may prove advantageous to the BJP to some extent.”
On other seats like Kairana, Bijnor and Ghaziabad, the Congress is likely to attract votes of not only minorities but also of other sections of the society.
In Meerut, the BJP has fielded its sitting MP Rajendra Agarwal for the third time but people and party leaders have been accusing Agarwal of failing to deliver.
Heavy turnout in the joint rally of Mayawati and Jayant Chaudhary on Monday also boosted the morale of alliance candidate Haji Yakoob.
Congress has fielded Harendra Agarwal, a Vaishya candidate, who will eat into BJP’s Vaishya votes.
In Kairana, BJP’s Pradeep Choudhary may have to face the challenge of consolidating Hindu Gujjar voters loyal to the family of former MP late Hukum Singh.
The party has denied ticket to Hukum Singh’s daughter Mriganka Singh who had contested the 2018 Lok Sabha bypoll after the demise of her father but lost to alliance candidate Tabassum Hasan.
The Congress has not fielded candidates against RLD (alliance) candidate Jayant Chaudhary in Baghpat and his father Ajit Singh in Muzaffarnagar.
Jayant will take on union minister Satyapal Singh in Baghpat while Ajit will be in direct fight with BJP’s Jat face and former minister Sanjeev Baliyan.
Both Ajit and Jayant had lost in 2014 election.
BJP candidate and sitting MP of Bijnor Bhartendra Singh also faces the challenge of retaining his seat. The alliance has fielded Malook Nagar while Congress is banking on Naseemuddin Siddiqui.