IMF warns pandemic darkening prospects in developing countries | Growth forecasts

  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that although the global economic recovery is continuing, the fault lines opened up by the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic are looking “more persistent.”
Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) speaks at a World Economic Outlook news conference in Washington on Tuesday.(Bloomberg)
Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) speaks at a World Economic Outlook news conference in Washington on Tuesday.(Bloomberg)
Published on Oct 12, 2021 09:33 PM IST
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Byhindustantimes.com, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

In a quarterly update to the World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday published the latest economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022. The IMF projected the global economy to grow 5.9% in 2021, a downward revision from July 2021 update, and 4.9% in 2022. 

The international financial institution noted that although the global economic recovery is continuing, the fault lines opened up by coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic are looking “more persistent.” The rapid spread of the highly contagious Delta variant of coronavirus and the threat of new variants, it said, have increased the uncertainty about how “quickly the pandemic can be overcome.”

IMF's chief economist Gita Gopinath said in a blog post that the downward revision reflects “more difficult near-term prospects” for the advanced economy group while the pandemic has considerably darkened the prospects of the low-income developing country group.

“The dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries remains a major concern,” she wrote.

The table shows GDP growth forecasts in percentages (Change from the July WEO update in parentheses):

 20212022
World5.9 (-0.1)4.9 (0.0)
Advanced economies5.2 (-0.4)4.5 (0.1)
United States 6.0 (-1.0)5.2 (0.3)
Germany3.1 (-0.5)4.6 (0.5)
France6.3 (0.5)3.9 (-0.3)
Italy5.8 (0.9)4.2 (0.0)
Spain5.7 (-0.5)6.4 (0.6)
Japan2.4 (-0.4)3.2 (0.2)
Britain6.8 (-0.2)5.0 (0.2)
Canada5.7 (-0.6)4.9 (0.4)
Emerging & developing economies6.4 (0.1)5.1 (-0.1)
Russia 4.7 (0.3)2.9 (-0.2)
Developing Asia7.2 (-0.3)6.3 (-0.1)
China8.0 (-0.1)5.6 (-0.1)
India 9.5 (0.0)8.5 (0.0)
Latin America & Caribbean6.3 (0.5)3.0 (-0.2)
Brazil 5.2 (-0.1)1.5 (-0.4)
Mexico 6.2 (-0.1)4.0 (-0.2)
Middle East & Central Asia4.1 (0.1)4.1 (0.4)
Sub-Saharan Africa3.7 (0.3)3.8 (-0.3)
South Africa5.0 (1.0)2.2 (0.0)
World Trade Volume9.7 (0.0)6.7 (-0.3)
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021