Russia may not survive the coming decade as it risks becoming a failed state amid Ukraine war, according to a survey of global strategists and analysts. As the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security polled 167 global strategists and practitioners, respondents pointed to a potential Russian collapse over the next decade.
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The survey included people from the private sector, academia, non-profit organizations, as well as independent consultants or freelancers. The US think tank said that the responses suggested “that the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine could precipitate hugely consequential upheaval in a great power with the largest nuclear-weapons arsenal on the planet.”
As per the survey, 46% of respondents expected Russia to become a failed state or break up by 2033 while almost 40%of respondents expected Russia “to break up internally for reasons including but not limited to revolution, civil war, or political disintegration.”
The survey comes as Russia’s war on Ukraine rages on resulting in Kyiv’s economy expected to have shrunk more than 30% in 2022, according to the latest estimates.
{{/usCountry}}The survey comes as Russia’s war on Ukraine rages on resulting in Kyiv’s economy expected to have shrunk more than 30% in 2022, according to the latest estimates.
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The survey also reflected on the risk of nuclear war with just 14% of the respondents believing that Russia is likely to use a nuclear weapon within the next ten years.
“Among those expecting the country to experience both state failure and a breakup in the coming decade, a sobering 22 percent believe that use of nuclear weapons will be part of that history ten years hence,” the think tank noted.
“Of those who believe Russia is likely to experience state failure or a breakup over the coming decade, 10 percent think that it is the most likely of any currently autocratic country to become democratic by the end of this period,” the survey found.