The first estimate for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) has now been released. Seniors can expect a 0.3 percent decrease from 2026, Newsweek reported.
This week, the Senior Citizens League said that it expects the 2027 COLA to be 2.5 percent. If their prediction comes true, it is a 0.3 percent decline from the cost-of-living bump this year.
Social Security payments change based on inflation via the COLA each year.
What we know
The Senior Citizens League’s prediction for 2027 says that seniors would get an extra $52 on average to their current Social Security checks. The official COLA could differ, but current inflationary trends suggest a 2.5 percent boost for next year. The COLA was set at 2.8 percent this year.
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A 2.5 percent COLA for next year would be about the same as the average COLA over the last few decades. In case the average retirement benefit if enacted, it would then be set at $2,123.
{{/usCountry}}A 2.5 percent COLA for next year would be about the same as the average COLA over the last few decades. In case the average retirement benefit if enacted, it would then be set at $2,123.
{{/usCountry}}The Social Security Administration will not release the official COLA for 2027 until October. By that time, inflationary trends can change slightly.
According to Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, most of the early predictions of the 2027 COLA are just “noise.” “The COLA formula relies on Q3 inflation data (July-September CPI-W), and we haven't even hit February yet,” he told Newsweek. “Last year, forecasters predicted 2.2 percent for 2026 back in March 2025, then 2.5 percent in June, before the actual number came in at 2.8 percent. The predictions chase the data, not the other way around.”
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“The real story is the squeeze. Even if seniors get 2.5 percent in 2027, Medicare Part B premiums already ate most of 2026's increase, rising 9.7 percent versus the 2.8 percent COLA. It's a recurring problem: Social Security uses CPI-W (which tracks working-age spending patterns), not CPI-E (which tracks actual senior expenses like healthcare). Research shows that if we used CPI-E, the 2024 COLA would've been 4 percent instead of 3.2 percent,” Ryan further said.
Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, said, “The rapid inflation of a few years ago has subsided, and in accordance with more moderate upticks in pricings, so too will be the COLA adjustments for subsequent years. This, of course, isn't a done deal. We still have 10 more months of data to take in before the final adjustment is announced, and that will largely depend on inflationary pressures rising or falling throughout this year. As for right now, though, seniors should plan for a more moderate adjustment to their Social Security checks next year.”