Infection curve to rise as contagion spreads to other districts in Haryana

Number of active cases decline due to higher recovery rate

In a worrying sign, forecasts made by the Haryana health department have indicated a rise in the number of fresh Covid-19 cases in the next 10 days.

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This despite the fact that the number of new infections in the last two weeks — from 3,427 (June 15-21) to 3,194 (June 22-28) to 3,176 (June 29-July 5) — has declined.

The fresh calculations peg the number of cumulative infections at over 23,000 by July 18. The projections are on the basis of July 7 data by taking into account an average increase of about 453 infections every day.

However, on a brighter note, the forecasts also indicate an improvement in the number of patients cured of the infection — pegged at 19,156 — and a dip in the number of active cases per day — predicted to be 3,853 — by July 18.

Top health officials attribute the predicted spike to wider resumption of normal day-to-day activities and movement of a large section of population across several districts. Officials said gradually, the infection will also move towards the north from the southern districts.

“The number of cases in Gurugram and Faridabad has stabilised at a particular level and the districts throw up almost identical numbers everyday. However, there are other districts like Rewari and Rohtak which are witnessing a spurt,” said additional chief secretary (ACS), health, Rajeev Arora.

He said industrial zones such Rewari’s Bawal and Dharuhera, where economic activity has resumed and transportation of men and material is in large numbers, are the key contributors to the infection tally.

“What eventually matters is the number of active cases and not the cumulative infections. If the number of active cases is below 5,000, then there is not much to worry about,” Arora said.

Slow contact tracing in Gurugram, Faridabad

As per the health department statistics, Haryana has done well overall in tracing the contacts of infected persons across the state, achieving a success rate of 72%.

However, it needs to pull its socks up in the troublesome districts like Gurugram, where contacts of only 56% cases have been traced.

“There still are 2,611 patients of whom the authorities have not been able to trace contacts. Considering the fact that there are less than 1,000 active cases in Gurugram and many of the patients whose contacts could not be traced would have recovered or died, the authorities need to get their act together,” said an official.

Contact tracing in Faridabad, another hotspot district, is about 76% with the authorities not being able to trace contacts of 1,055 patients.

“We will be focusing more on contact tracing efforts in these two districts and our success rate will improve,” said another official.