Punjab is staring at a severe monsoon deficit, having recorded 34% less rainfall than normal since June 1, making it one of the worst-affected states in the northern region this year.
Punjab’s rainfall deficit is more than twice that of the Haryana-Delhi-Chandigarh region and nearly four times that of Himachal Pradesh.
Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh, considered a single meteorological region, have recorded a rainfall deficiency of 15% while Himachal Pradesh has reported a deficit of just 9%.
The India Meteorological Department’s latest rainfall data shows that the monsoon has remained markedly weak over Punjab this season. Despite intermittent spells of rain in different parts of the state, the overall precipitation has remained substantially below normal.
According to the available data, Punjab received 229.2 mm of rainfall against the normal 349 mm between June 1 and August 27.
The state had a poor start to the monsoon. Punjab received 29.5 mm of rainfall in June against the normal 54.5 mm in June, resulting in a monthly deficit of around 46%.
In July, the state received 119.3 mm against the normal 161.4 mm, leaving a 26% shortfall. The cumulative deficiency has remained at around 34%.
{{/usCountry}}In July, the state received 119.3 mm against the normal 161.4 mm, leaving a 26% shortfall. The cumulative deficiency has remained at around 34%.
{{/usCountry}}Last year, the state received 621 mm of rainfall between June 1 and September 30, against the long period average (LPA) of 439.8 mm, an excess of 41%
It was Punjab’s highest monsoon rainfall since 1995 and the ninth highest since 1901.
The deficient rainfall is a concern for an agrarian state like Punjab, heavily dependent on adequate water availability. The rainfall deficit will put more pressure on groundwater and canal irrigation resources.
The implications of the poor monsoon are being felt by the state’s reservoirs, with the Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) issuing a word of caution to partner states, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, to draw water prudently to conserve supply for the year-long demand for potable water and irrigation.
According to officials, the water level of Bhakra Dam Reservoir — the Gobind Sagar lake — as on August 24 was 1,634 feet, at least 25 feet short of the average and 46 feet short of full reservoir level — 1,680 feet.
“Ideally at this stage, during the monsoon, the water level nears 1,660 feet, but we are way behind in the current season,” explained Manoj Tripathi, chairman, BBMB.
“Hence, on August 21, we have issued a caution to states to draw water strictly as per need and don’t overdraw to save water for the dry season,” he added.
Last year, around this time, the water levels hit the maximum 1,680 feet on September 5. This was despite the opening of the flood gates on August 19 that left downstream areas of Punjab flooded in the state’s worst-ever deluge that lasted until the second week of September.
The immediate weather forecast offers limited hope of a significant recovery in Punjab’s rainfall deficit. Monsoon activity has now become largely weak over northwest India, with only marginal rainfall being observed over parts of the region. Dry conditions later this week might lead to a further gradual decline in rainfall activity across north India, the IMD forecast said.
The next significant opportunity for rainfall could come with a fresh low-pressure area expected to develop during the first week of September. The system is likely to provide what could be a last push for monsoon activity over north and central India.
With September being the final month of the southwest monsoon before it starts withdrawing, Punjab will need substantial rainfall over the coming weeks to improve its overall seasonal position.