Shimla: Three months before Himachal Pradesh goes to the polls, it’s raining guarantees and freebies for voters.
Buoyed by its landslide victory in neighbouring Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party, the new entrant in the hill state’s bipolar politics, started the populist race way back in April when Delhi chief minister and its national convener Arvind Kejriwal addressed his maiden rally on chief minister Jai Ram Thakur’s turf in Mandi. Kejriwal promised free electricity, health services, education and ₹1,000 monthly grant for women if voted to power.
Taking cue from the momentum building in favour of the AAP, BJP’s Jai Ram Thakur took to making populist announcements on April 15, the state’s foundation day. He announced raising the free electricity limit up to 125 units from the existing 60 units and a 50% concession in bus fare for women despite his party’s central leadership being against freebies. The chief minister justified the move saying Himachal Pradesh is a power-surplus state and its people should get benefits, while he termed the concession for women a bid to empower them.
Not to be outdone, the Congress recently came up with its own list of guarantees, including ₹1,500 a month for women above 18 years.
Wooing women voters
Women voters constitute 49.4% of the electorate in Himachal Pradesh. According to the draft electoral roll published last month, the state has a total of 53,88,387 voters of which 27,23,823 are men and 26,64,543 are women. Kangra has the highest number of 12,80,504 voters of which 6,36,124 are women.
{{/usCountry}}Women voters constitute 49.4% of the electorate in Himachal Pradesh. According to the draft electoral roll published last month, the state has a total of 53,88,387 voters of which 27,23,823 are men and 26,64,543 are women. Kangra has the highest number of 12,80,504 voters of which 6,36,124 are women.
{{/usCountry}}There are at least 15 assembly segments where the number of female voters is more than the number of males.
In Hamirpur district, all five constituencies have more female voters, while Mandi district also has five such constituencies out of 10.
Guarantee to get elected?
The AAP has already announced four guarantees, including free education for all children, free health services and ₹1 crore compensation to defence, paramilitary and state police personnel who die in the line of duty.
On the other hand, the Congress has announced 10 public guarantees which also include the restoration of the old pension scheme and free electricity for up to 300 units.
After Prime Minister Narendra Modi took an anti-freebie stand, the state BJP is now deliberating on how to strike a balance and has questioned the guarantees announced by the AAP and the Congress.
Reality check on economy
Given the state of the economy of Himachal Pradesh, it would not be easy to fulfil the tall promises the parties are making.
Himachal Pradesh’s budget estimate for 2022-23 is ₹51,365 crore and the fiscal deficit is estimated to be ₹40,279 crore, which is an increase of 9% over the revised estimate of 2021-22. This expenditure includes the payment of salaries, pensions, interest, and subsidies.
The state’s debt burden has grown to nearly ₹65,000 crore from ₹46,385 crore in 2017.
While the AAP claims that it only intends to spend the amount collected as tax on people’s welfare, the Congress says it has worked out its math to implement the promises.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has guardedly opposed the freebies. “The governments should rather tax the rich and use the money for benefiting the poor. With people’s anger growing now parties are taking such measures to woo voters,” its lone legislator in the assembly, Rakesh Singha, said.
Experts offer word of caution
Countering the propaganda, Pradeep Chauhan, a former economic adviser to the Himachal Pradesh government, says the social security pension already exists on which ₹1,200 crore is being spent, while ₹1500 crore is earmarked for the public distribution system (PDS) other subsidies, while electricity subsidies cost the government ₹400 crore, and unemployment allowance drains the exchequer of ₹800 crore.
“If other freebies are to be implemented, it will have serious repercussions on a revenue-deficit state of Himachal Pradesh. The ₹1,000 a month for every woman will cost the state ₹3,000 crore,” says Chauhan.
“The government has accountability to all but more to the middle class. How can parties forfeit the hard-earned state revenue just to garner votes? It’s a tragic trend in Indian politics and responsible citizens should respond accordingly. The states would drown in debt otherwise and fail as is happening around elsewhere in the subcontinent,” says Harish Thakur, the head of the political science department at Himachal Pradesh University.