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BJP, SP hold cards close to chest ahead of bypolls in west UP
Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat was late Mulayam Singh Yadav’s traditional seat. The BJP keeps up the suspense on whether it would ‘field’ or ‘back’ someone from MSY’s politically divided family on the seat
LUCKNOW The crucial December 5 bypolls in western Uttar Pradesh - Mainpuri Lok Sabha and Khatauli assembly segment – would give an idea about the political equations in the region, where Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal (SP-RLD) alliance continues to remain firm.
Notification for another bypoll in west UP, that of Rampur (Sadar), has been withheld by the election commission, after SC’s observation on a plea filed by SP veteran Azam Khan. This is Khan’s traditional seat from where, barring a stray loss in 1996, he has never lost since 1980.
The SP has already cleared that it would contest Mainpuri and Rampur (Sadar) (whenever it is announced) while its alliance partner RLD would contest the Khatauli assembly seat bypoll necessitated by the disqualification of BJP MLA Vikram Saini.
These bypolls would also be the first test of the two top, recently appointed UP BJP leaders – state chief Bhupendra Singh and general secretary (organisation) Dharampal Singh – both OBC leaders from west UP, who are busy devising strategies for the key contests, whose results on December 8, would coincide with the results of Gujarat and Himachal polls.
Both these UP leaders have been busy planning for these bypolls and have been holding widespread consultations. A core committee meet with chief minister Yogi Adityanath and two deputy chief ministers Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak was to be held at the CM’s 5 Kalidas Marg residence late on Wednesday.
“It is a win-win situation for the BJP. It has no real stakes on these seats, Mainpuri LS and Rampur (Sadar), it has never won before. But a win would do wonders for its 2024 LS campaign. On the other hand, if the SP manages to stop the BJP, it would retain its image of being the only party in UP, capable of filling up the opposition space and thus being the sole challenger to the BJP,” said Prof Manoj Dixit, head of Lucknow University’s (LU) public administration department.
The Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat was late Mulayam Singh Yadav’s traditional seat, he held till his death. The BJP has kept up the suspense on whether it would ‘field’ or ‘back’ someone from MSY’s politically divided family on the seat.
BJP MP Subrat Pathak, when asked on the probability of the party fielding Aparna Yadav (wife of Prateek, MSY’s son from his second wife Sadhna), who had joined the BJP in the 2022 UP polls, said: “She is a BJP worker now and the party can field anyone.”
The other name being discussed as a possible BJP ‘backed’ candidate is that of MSY’s brother Shivpal Yadav, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s estranged uncle, who after severing ties with the SP, now heads his own Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia).
However, Shivpal has been giving conflicting statements over his likely move.
“We are still thinking (on Mainpuri). Let the candidate be finalised first. Whatever is decided would be before you soon,” Shivpal told newspersons in Gorakhpur on Wednesday.
Some BJP leaders even felt that to stop the family from disintegrating, Akhilesh could either offer the Mainpuri seat to Tej Pratap, MSY’s grand-nephew who had held the Mainpuri LS seat in 2014 bypolls when MSY, having won from both Mainpuri and Azamgarh, tactically settled for the latter or even Shivpal’s son Aditya.
“At this moment, they will do everything they can to keep the seat and we are aware of their desperation,” a senior BJP leader said.
Posturing apart, the BJP is also looking at these bypolls as an opportunity to test itself against SP-RLD combine in west UP.
Of the 16 seats that BJP lost in UP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, seven were from the west UP belt, including all six seats in Moradabad division, the region from where BJP’s first Jat chief in UP, hails from. Dharampal, the BJP’s general secretary (organisation) hails from Bijnor, also in west UP.
In 2022 UP assembly polls too, despite the BJP’s overall impressive win, the SP-RLD alliance had bagged 17 of the 27 seats in the Moradabad division (against BJP’s 10) and 9 out of 16 seats in the Saharanpur region. BKU leader Rakesh Tikait, who has just announced formation of women units, too has been critical of BJP.
In Khatauli assembly seat of Muzaffarnagar, where bypoll has been called for after the disqualification of its sitting lawmaker Vikram Saini, the SP has decided to back RLD candidate.
RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary, a Rajya Sabha MP from SP quota, was the first among non-BJP leaders to seek Saini’s disqualification and is now stated to be readying for road shows to galvanise his party cadres on the seat. BJP’s Muzaffarnagar MP Sanjeev Balyan too is planning a counter campaign.
On Rampur (Sadar) assembly seat, the BJP has already planned a ‘pasmanda’ (backward) Muslim meet on November 12, planned to cut into Azam Khan’s vote bank.
