Maharashtra polls: A struggling Ajit Pawar still eyes the chief minister's chair

Ajit Pawar faces challenges in upcoming elections, struggling with seat allocation and party unity after his split from Sharad Pawar’s NCP

“…no one can be an eternal power in politics. Success and failure are a part of it. We shouldn’t be discouraged with failure and need to be grounded during success.”- Ajit Pawar (NCP) chief

NCP leader Ajit Pawar. (ANI)

MUMBAI: Lately, things have just not been going Ajit Pawar’s way, and he’s about to face even greater challenges. The upcoming assembly elections will be the first real test of Ajit’s leadership and his party’s future.

Leading the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in a state election for the first time since he split from his parent party in July 2023, Ajit is desperate to vindicate himself. He is equally intent on reversing the perception that he is the weakest link in the ruling Mahayuti alliance, which appointed him deputy chief minister when he rebelled against his uncle, Sharad Pawar, and joined the Mahayuti coalition with 40 MLAs. But, then, ever since Ajit first attempted to step out from his uncle’s shadow to strike out on his own five years ago, it’s been a relentless battle on all fronts.

In the recent seat-sharing arrangement with his alliance partners, the Shiv Sena and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Pawar came up short. The NCP was allotted only 54 seats of the 60 it had sought. The Sena, on the other hand, has been assigned 80 seats, even though it has as many MLAs in the government as does the NCP – 50. The BJP, the senior partner in the coalition, has got the maximum 148 seats, of a total 288 in the assembly.

Making matters worse for Ajit, he failed to corner the Ashti seat in the negotiations. On top of that, he was asked to rehabilitate two former BJP MPs from the NCP’s quota, further shrinking his party’s tally. A party functionary said the NCP had planned to contest 60 seats, hoping to win 40. “No party in Maharashtra can win 40 seats by fighting 54,” he admitted. The party has since scaled down its target to winning 35 seats, insiders revealed.

An internal survey conducted by the NCP in September, in 70-odd seats, showed that the party was strong in 23 constituencies. There were 16 seats where the party needed to work harder to win elections. In the remaining 31 seats, the situation appeared unfavorable. Of these, 21 could become favourable if the votes of the NCP’s allies, Shiv Sena and BJP, were transferred to the NCP candidates. However, the party got only 54 out of these 70 seats.

Deflecting criticism that he had failed to negotiate from a position of strength, Ajit has a very different take on the numbers. “There is no point contesting a large number of seats and failing to deliver success on them. Instead, take a limited number of seats and win a maximum of them,” he said on Marathi news channel ‘ABP Majha’ recently.

Apart from failing to get an equitable share of seats for the elections, Ajit has been struggling to keep his flock together. The leak in the ship started before the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, with sitting MLA Nilesh Lanke returning to the Sharad Pawar-led NCP. Lanke contested the Lok Sabha election from Ahmednagar and defeated sitting BJP MP Sujay Vikhe. The results encouraged other MLAs and leaders, who were insecure about their prospects in the NCP, as the NCP (SP) won eight of the ten seats it contested.

Moreover, Ajit’s NCP wanted to contest nine Lok Sabha seats but was allotted only four in the seat-sharing deal. Of these, it won only one seat. Ajit’s wife Sunetra’s defeat in Baramati added another question mark to his ability to win elections opposite his charismatic uncle Sharad Pawar in western Maharashtra.

As a result of all these developments, in the run-up to the assembly elections, MLAs such as Rajendra Shingne, Baban Shinde, Dipak Chavan, former Daund MLA Ramesh Thorat, former MLC Babajani Durrani, senior leader Ramraje Naik Nimbalkar’s brother Sanjeevraje Naik Nimbalkar, Bapusaheb Pathare, among others, joined the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP). MLC Ramraje Naik Nimbalkar has declared he will remain neutral in the polls.

All this despite Ajit’s assurance that the party would be allotted around 70 seats and all its sitting MLAs would be renominated. However, he did manage to win over three Congress MLAs — Sulbha Khodke, Zeeshan Siddique and Hiraman Khoskar.

His latest trial comes from the serious contest he faces on home turf, the Baramati assembly constituency. He will go up against his nephew Yugendra, son of his younger brother Shrinivas, and a candidate fielded by his uncle’s NCP (SP).

Ajit has fought an uphill battle ever since his political ambitions saw him join the Mahayuti coalition in July 2023. Even though he brought with him 40 MLAs, the 65-year-old leader has never really felt a part of the Mahayuti family. He was expecting 12 ministerial berths for his party, apart from important government boards and corporations as part of power-sharing agreement. None of that really materialised. The NCP got eight ministerial berths.

A seasoned politician and five-time deputy chief minister, Ajit has been nursing chief ministerial ambitions for a while now but, for the last 16 months, he’s had to put up a brave front. He says politics, by its very nature, is fluid. “Many senior leaders were sidelined during the Indira Gandhi wave. There was also a time when the BJP had only two MPs and Rajiv Gandhi was prime minister. The situation changes continuously. I believe that no one can be an eternal power in politics. Success and failure are a part of it. We shouldn’t be discouraged with failure and need to be grounded during success,” said Ajit.