Cannot rule out further surge in Maha, say experts as Mumbai breaches 1 million mark

Mumbai Maharashtra on Monday added 31,111 new Covid-19 cases, the drop can be attributed to a lower number of tests done in the last 24 hours

Mumbai Maharashtra on Monday added 31,111 new Covid-19 cases, the drop can be attributed to a lower number of tests done in the last 24 hours. Between January 12 and January 16, Maharashtra clocked over 40,000 cases daily, with over 2,00,000 tests conducted every day. Experts said the next two weeks will be crucial in the state’s battle against the third wave of Covid-19 as the state could see a rise in cases due to the spread of the Omicron variant.

Mumbai breached the million mark in terms of cumulative Covid-19 cases on Monday with the addition of 5,956 fresh cases (Santosh Kumar /Hindustan Times)

In the last 24 hours, the state tested 1,50,489 samples and had a positivity rate of 20.67 percent. The state’s active case count stood at 2,67,334 on Monday.

Meanwhile, Mumbai breached the million mark in terms of cumulative Covid-19 cases on Monday with the addition of 5,956 fresh cases. Mumbai’s active case count was 50,757.

Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the State Covid task force, said that Mumbai is likely to see a decline in cases now and it could follow the pattern of the wave in South Africa. “Mumbai’s Covid-19 cases were at their peak last week, and the curve is flattening now. Cities like Mumbai which are past their peak will see cases declining. But that doesn’t mean that we should relax. It appears that we are following the South African pattern where there was a rapid rise and a quick fall,” Dr Joshi said.

However, the experts also pointed out that numbers could remain low due to a change in the Centre’s testing protocol, which now mandates Covid tests of only symptomatic and senior citizens.

Joshi said it would be “difficult to predict numbers”.

Maharashtra’s numbers were driven mainly by Mumbai and the next two weeks are going to be crucial, he said, adding that “We cannot rule out a similar surge (like Mumbai) in the rest of Maharashtra.”

Joshi said it would be “difficult to predict numbers” and added, “Maharashtra numbers were driven mainly by Mumbai. And the next two weeks are going to be crucial.” He further added, “Maharashtra is on an upswing. We cannot rule out a similar surge (like Mumbai) in the rest of Maharashtra.”

A senior health department official said it would be early to say that the wave was stabilising in Maharashtra. “It has been only 12 days to a week that we have seen an increase [in daily cases]. The numbers need to remain consistent for a period with enough daily tests to know if it was stabilising. Mumbai Covid cases drove the numbers for Maharashtra, but now Mumbai seems to be stabilising. The district administration and civic bodies need to remain vigilant for the next two weeks as well,” he said, requesting anonymity.

Dr Joshi said that the testing guidelines which were revised recently could show low numbers. “The testing guidelines have changed. Nearly 80 percent of positive cases are asymptomatic. Now, only symptomatic people are tested so the numbers may remain low due to the change in the testing strategy.”

The task force member added that those contracting the infection must not take it lightly. “We are still getting a proportion of the [infected] population with the Delta variant. Many are getting hospitalised. So people should not dismiss as mild and remain in touch with their doctors, check their saturation, and follow the Covid timetable. Even if people are asymptomatic and they step out of isolation after seven days, they must wear double-mask so that others are not affected.”

Maharashtra on Monday also reported 122 new cases of Omicron variant, taking the total tally to 1,860. Out of these, 959 have been discharged following a negative RT-PCR test.

Of the new cases reported on Monday, 40 were from Pune city, 29 from Mira-Bhayander, 26 from Nagpur, 14 from Aurangabad, seven from Amravati, four from Mumbai, and one each from Bhandara, Thane city and Pimpri-Chinchwad.

The Omicron cases are largely concentrated in Mumbai (656), Pune (742), Nagpur (116), Thane (114) districts. Rural and semi-urban centres such as Amravati, Satara, Kolhapur, Aurangabad, Osmanabad, Akola, Ahmednagar, Jalna, Wardha, and Bhandara also have reported Omicron variant cases. The spread of the heavily mutated variant in these parts need to be contained to keep the spread of covid in control, officials said.